Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 05/12/99

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING... EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. 00Z VBG SOUNDING SHOWING A LOW AND STRONG INVERSION...SO LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO REFORM LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS LA BASIN...AS WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.

LATEST USC PROFILER AND ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING MARINE LAYER SHRINKING DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FEET...WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET. DUE TO THIS SIGNIFICANT WARMING...WOULD EXPECT HIGHER VALLEYS TO BE QUITE WARM ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY...SO COASTAL PLAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY GOOD SEA BREEZE. ON THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CALIFORNIA WITH EVEN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. THIS ALREADY WELL HANDLED BY CURRENT FORECAST WITH MORE STRATUS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOWS WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED GOOD ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF STRATUS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHLAND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LAX 0000. GOMBERG.

.LAX...GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFLAX.

INITIALIZATION OF AVN TO ACARS/UA DATA ABOUT THE BEST...YET 30-40 KTS TOO WK WITH ZONAL JET W OF 140W...AND POSSIBLY 3 DEGREES OR SO TOO FAR N ...THAT IMPLIES POTENTIALLY DEEPER LOW OVR PAC NW THU. AMS BCMG QUITE UNSTABLE THIS MORNING WITH BIGGEST TEMP CHANGE ALF CONTINUING TIL MID MORNING...HENCE EXPANDING PCPN AREAS. CONV ZONES ESTABLISHING THEMSELVES THIS MORNING OVR BOTH SAN JUANS TO THE NE AND FM KNUW-KPAE TO STEVENS PASS. LITTLE SWD DRIFT TODAY YET RMNG N KSEA THEN FIZZLING TONIGHT WITH DMSHG FLOW. CONTINUING SNOW ADVISORY PER ABOVE. SNOW LVLS STEADILY FALLING TO NR 2000 FT BY THU. MAIN UPR LVL LOW BCMG FRAGMENTED THU/FRI...WITH MORE WDSPRD INSTBY/PCPN...ESPECIALLY THU AS STRONGEST PIECE OF LOW SITS OVER US. SLOW RECOVERY FRI/SAT AS SECONDARY VORT SPOKES ROTATE AROUND LOW. ONSHORE FLOW FRI/SAT COUPLED WITH BRUSHINGS OF INSTBY ASSOCD WITH LOW CONTINUING COOL CLOUD COVER WITH LITTLE AFTERNOON BLUE SKY...IF ANY FOR FRI/SAT. .EXTENDED...ALMOST OVERWHELMING CONSISTENCY OF THE MRF THE PAST 5 NIGHTS. MDL MAINTAINING RIDGE BTWN ALASKA AND ERN SIBERIA WITH CRUX OF ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT SERIES OF LOWS NR HUDSON BAY...THAT CLEARLY SHOW POTENTIAL FOR RETROGRESSION...SOMETHING TO KEEP A WARY EYE ON. NONETHELESS A FLAT DIRTY RIDGE SETS UP FOR SAT/SUN/MON PRECEDING WK SYS MON NIGHT THAT DIGS S ALG CA CST FOR A POTENTIALLY DRIER NLY FLOW WED-FRI OF NEXT WK. M QUERCIAGROSSA

UIL 868 SEA 678 OLM 678

.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL... .SEW...SCA NRN INLAND...W ENTRANCE STRAIT...COAST... GALE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT... SNOW ADVISORY CASCADES/OLYMPICS...

SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA HAVING LIMITED SUCCESS IN BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL PCPN TO THE AREA AS UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND DRY AIR IN LOW LVLS IS ADVECTING INTO NRN SECTIONS COURTESY OF SFC HIGH TO THE NE. BEST PCPN IS NEAR WEAK SFC LOW IN EASTERN IA AND NR WARM FRON IN THE CHI VCNTY WITH GOOD LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND WAA. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVR NE IL AND SE WI HELPING TO PRODUCE RW/TRW IN THOSE AREAS. THIS SHOWS UP WELL IN ACARS WINDS AROUND 15000FT FROM PLANES FLYING OUT OF ORD/RFD/MSN. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND GRADUALLY LIFTS IT NNE TODAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RW INTO GRB AREA AND DOOR PENINSULA FOR A LITTLE BIT TODAY...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO DRY AIR. MKE WSR-88D (GRB RADAR HAS HARDWARE PROBLEMS) SHOWS PCPN MVG INTO MANITOWOC COUNTY AND SFC OBS FM MTW SHOW LWRG VSBYS SO IT/S PROBABLY RAINING THERE. SO IT LOOKS LIKE AREA SE OF GRB AND IN FAR WRN PART OF OUR FCST AREA (CLOSER TO SFC TROF...UPPER LOW AND LOW LVL MOISTURE) HAS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS FROM LAKE.

RDM WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB