Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 05/21/99

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
325 AM PDT FRI MAY 21 1999

...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

...DISCUSSION... 00Z MDLS SIMILAR IN CLOSING OFF A LOW OVR NRN BAJA TODAY WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF AND REMAINING IN THE VCNTY OF SRN CA THRU SUN. ETA SHOWS ABUNDANT MARINE LYR MSTR W OF THE MTNS...BUT OTHERWISE VERY LIMITED...MAINLY MID LVL...MSTR WITH THIS SYS. ETA ALSO SHOWS ONLY MINOR MID LVL COOLING WITH INSUFFICIENT COOLING AT LOWER LVLS NECESSARY TO BREAK THE MARINE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS W OF THE MTNS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...ACARS SOUNDINGS FM 03Z TO 06Z HAVE SHOWN A TREND TOWARD LESS COOLING AT 700 MB AND BLO AND GREATER COOLING ABV 700 MB THAN SHOWN BE THE ETA...HENCE A TREND TOWARD GREATER DESTABILIZATION THAN SHOWN BY THE ETA. WL HAVE HIGHEST POPS FOR NORTHEAST FACING MTN SLOPES (THOUGH STILL LOW) AND ADJ AREAS WITH MAIN EMPHASIS DURG PD OF PK HEATING EACH DAY. 00Z COAMPS SHOWED THE CSTL EDDY PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON TODAY...SO WL GO FOR SLOW OR ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING W OF THE MTNS TODAY...LTL CHANGE FM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

SAN 100

.SAN...NONE.

MARTIN

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
950 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 1999

UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW DRY AIR OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES BELOW 0. THERE IS ALSO A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CAP PRESENT. RUC SHOWS LIGHT SOUTH WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YDAY. HIGH WAS 82 YESTERDAY AND CAE IS GOING 86 TODAY. THIS STILL SOUNDS GOOD. AN OLD 0713Z ACARS SOUNDING FOR CAE GIVES ABOUT 82 BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...WE WOULD EXPECT ABOUT 1 CATEGORY HIGHER. IR STLT LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS MOVING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF UPPER RIDGE BUT IT IS THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RATHER THAN PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON.

WRKZFP IN ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

.CAE...NONE.

TTH