Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 05/27/99

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT WED MAY 26 1999

LATEST SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS INDICATE SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES FROM VENTURA COUNTY NORTHWARD...WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE HUNG TOUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FOR ZONES 53/54 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...INDICATING ONLY FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE MARINE LAYER. CURRENT ACARS DATA INDICATE MARINE LAYER BETWEEN 1500-2000 FEET. 12Z MODELS INDICATE EVER SO SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT RISES OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SHRINK THE MARINE LAYER A LITTLE...BUT STILL THINK LAYER DEPTH AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH LOW CLOUDS/FOG INTO THE VALLEYS...WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/DENSE FOG INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SLO COUNTY. ON THURSDAY...CLEARING SHOULD BE A BIT QUICKER...BUT STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT CLEARING NEAR THE BEACHES. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE/SLIGHT DECREASE IN H5 HEIGHTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE DEPTH...WITH AREAL COVERAGE VERY SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THICKNESSES OR 850 TEMPS. THEREFORE...MOUNTAIN/DESERT TEMPS WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE VALLEYS...SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS MARINE LAYER AND QUICKER CLEARING. ON FRIDAY...COASTAL AND VALLEY TEMPS SHOULD BE PERSISTENCE OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER DEPENDING ON MARINE LAYER.

LAX 0000. THOMPSON.

.LAX...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
241 AM EDT THU MAY 27 1999

NO REAL PROBLEMS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KY MOVING SE. AFTER THIS TROF PASSES THROUGH MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS BUILDING EAST INTO THE OH VLY. AT THE SFC...HI PRES WL ALSO RMN IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS. THIS WILL LEAVE KY WITH RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES EXCEEDED GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERE. DEWPOINTS LOOK FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE SO FAR TODAY. THEREFORE...WE WILL SHOOT FOR HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO FWC/FAN NUMBERS AGAIN. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING SHOWS 850 TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODELS SO THIS TREND LOOKS TO BE IN LINE. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW WITH NO REAL ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE THE DOMINATE SFC HIGH IN PLACE.

.SDF...NONE

COX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 AM PDT THU MAY 27 1999

ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS WIDEPSREAD LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVER THE COAST/VALLEYS. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE LAYER A BIT SHALLOWER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL AROUND 1500 FEET. EXPECT VERY SIMILAR CLEARING AS YESTERDAY...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG HANGING TOUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE BEACHES FROM VENTURA COUNTY NORTHWARD.

AS FOR TEMPS...USC PROFILER INDICATES SOME WARMING AT LOWER LEVELS SO TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS.

OVERALL...CURRENT ZONES LOOK GOOD. THEREFORE...PLAN NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

LAX 000. THOMPSON.

.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFLAX.