SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT THU MAY 27 1999
LATEST SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS INDICATE SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG HUGGING THE COAST FROM SAN
LUIS OBISPO TO VENTURA COUNTY. ALSO...HAVE SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL BE HANDLED
BY 30% POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS FOR THE FORECAST...MARINE LAYER GAME CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
12Z MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE LAYER DEPTH OVERNIGHT...
CURRENTLY AROUND 1500 FEET PER ACARS. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO PUSH INTO MOST VALLEY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD CLEAR NICELY TO THE BEACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...MODELS INDICATE H5 HEIGHTS DECREASE AS TROUGH
PUSHES INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PUSHING
INTO THE VALLEYS BEFORE CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...12Z MODELS FORECASTED THIS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION RELATIVELY WELL...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE CHANGE IN INSTABILITY/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE...WILL
BE INCLINED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FOR TEMPS...MODELS INDICATE SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN THICKNESSES
AND 850 TEMPS FOR FRIDAY...SO MOUNTAIN/DESERT AREAS SHOULD WARM UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES. MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP FRIDAY TEMPS FOR
COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS ABOUT THE SAME AS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ON
SATURDAY...ALL AREAS SHOULD COOL SEVERAL DEGREES AS THICKNESSES FALL
AND MARINE LAYER DEEPENS.
LAX 0000. THOMPSON.
.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFLAX.