Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 05/29/99

CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME STARTING UP THIS AFTN. BASED ON SAT IMAGES...APPEARS THAT WINDS ALOFT HAVE INCREASED CAUSING TOPS TO SHEAR APART AS THEY DEVELOP. ACARS REPORTS INDICATE WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SLIGHTLY OVER 30 KTS AT 18K FT...WHICH COULD BE DUE TO THE WK VORT MAX LOCATED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION THIS AFTN. THUS...TSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO SBD COUNTY AND EVEN THOSE HAVE BEEN MUCH WEAKER THAN YDA. WILL STILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED TSTORMS IN THE MTNS AND DSRTS JUST IN CASE SOMETHING DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTN. WITH TROF DIGGING DOWN THE COAST SAT AND FLOW ALF GENERALLY OUT OF THE W TO SW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS AND DSRTS SAT. UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF WELL OFFSHORE OF SO CAL BY SUN. THIS IS QUITE A BIT FURTHER W THAN LAST WEEKENDS CUT OFF WHICH BROUGHT TSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR THAT REASON...WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUN AS WELL...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE CUTOFF AND MAKE SURE IT DOESN'T END UP FARTHER E THAN MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL.

MARINE LYR MORE STUBBORN TDA THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS...LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS. MOST BEACH AREAS HAVE NOT SEEN THE SUN YET TODAY AND THIS MAY BE THE CASE THRU SUN. EXPECT MARINE LYR TO DEEPEN TNT WITH LOCAL DRIZZLE PSBL...THEN DEEPEN A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVELY SAT NT AND SUN WITH MORE DRIZZLE PSBL. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT SUNDAY WILL BE AT BEST PARTLY CLOUDY BUT QUITE POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CST MON...ONSHORE GRADIENTS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THUS MORE CLEARING IS POSSIBLE MON AFTN WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE A VERY COOL AND GLOOMY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

LAX 0000. WOFFORD

.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFLAX.

...SYNOPSIS... A LATE SEASON UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SOME DRIZZLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

...DISCUSSION...

THE EDDY CIRCULATION PROGGED ON THE MESOETA SHOWED UP AS EDDY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ON SAN METAR. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS AND ONSHORE TRENDS WILL PRETTY MUCH SOLIDIFY THE IDEA OF VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUN FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 0842 ACARS REPORT OF THE INVERSION BASE UP TO 3000 FEET AND RISING.

SUNDAY IS ALSO DOOMED TO HAVING COPIOUS LOW CLOUDS WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS DOWN ALL AREAS. THICKNESS FALLS COUPLED WITH GOOD INLAND PENETRATION OF THE MARINE AIR WILL COOL EVEN THE DESERTS.

SOME MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT I AM MORE CONCERNED ABOUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM NV. PRETTY LIMITED ON THE CURRENT PROGS...BUT WE MUST KEEP AN EYE ON THE MOISTURE.

UK/EURO/MRF PROGS ARE TRIPLETS AS THE SOLUTIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL. THE RESULT SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SAN 000

.SAN...NONE.

SMALL

BEAUTIFUL DAY AND WEEKEND COMING UP. NET WEST TO EAST GRADIENTS ACROSS CASCADES PLUS LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY ALLOWED SOME SHALLOW ST TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND USUAL PLACE LIKE CHEHALIS GAP TO OLM. SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS SUN MORNING AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS MORE NELY. ACARS SOUNDING OVER BFI SHOWS AIR MASS WARMER IN LOWER LEVELS BELOW 2500 FEET THAN MODELS SHOW. HOWEVER WITH AFTN NWLY WINDS MAX TMPS HOLDING NEAR 70 OR SO. LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH MORE NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUBDCNC AS RIDGE AXIS FLOPS OVER SOME. 3 TO 5 DAY...MEMORIAL DAY STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS THINKING THAT SOME HI LVL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN WA DURING THE DAY. MAX TMPS ON MEMORIAL DAY ABOUT SAME AS SUNDAYS MAX. ENJOY. BC UIL 000 SEA 000 OLM 000

.KATX...VCP32/CSR32...OPERATIONAL

.SEW...SCA STRT JDF AND COAST.