SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
AFDLOX 900 AM PDT THU JUN 3 1999
VERY UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WK FRONT HELD
TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED LAST NIGHT AND BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN TO
MOST OF THE AREA. MUCH OF THAT HAS TAPERED OFF NOW...THO PLENTY OF
CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE BASIN. MUCH CLEARER SKIES OVER VTU/SBA COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS WILL FILL IN AS THE DAY GOES ALONG SO
WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE TOO MUCH ADJUSTMENT (IF ANY AT ALL) TO THE
FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG VORT
MAX CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE BAY AREA. A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE
ASSOCD WITH THAT CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
JUST APPROACHING MONTEREY BAY. ACARS AND OAK SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -25 TO -28 UP THERE...WHILE ONLY -10 TO -15 IN SO CAL.
THUS...AMS LOCALLY HAS A LOT OF COOLING TO DO TDA BEFORE THINGS REALLY
GET INTERESTING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING LOW AND ASSOCD VORT TO NEAR
THE CHANNEL ISLANDS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. VERY STRONG PVA ASSOCD WITH
THIS...THO MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. STILL...WITH THAT MUCH PVA
AND COLD AIR DIVING SOUTH...EXPECT WE WILL GET A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATE
EVENING. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP AS
WELL. COLD AIR WILL ALSO ALLOW SNOW TO FALL AT UNUSUALLY LOW
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET.
PREVIOUS SPS HANDLED ALL THIS WELL...AND WILL LIKELY UPDATE THAT LATER
THIS MORNING.
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPED IN THE SBA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE
WILL LIKELY DECREASE SHORTLY...HOWEVER AS VORT MAX PASSES THRU
TNT...EXPECT STRONG NLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AGAIN AND MAY GET SOME VERY
GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TNT WITH WINDS ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER
ANOTHER WEAKER VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THRU FRI AM AND BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA. CURRENT ZONES HANDLE THIS
FAIRLY WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. MAY UPDATE LATER THIS
MORNING TO ADJUST CLOUDS IN THE FIRST PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE EARLIER
PACKAGE LOOKS REASONABLE.
LAX 364. WOFFORD
.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFLAX.