Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 06/04/99

.OVERVIEW...H5 RDGG CONTS IN THE MEAN ALG 155W WHILE TROFG CONTS ON US W CST. MRG MODELS SHOW LTL CHG IN LONG WV PAT THRU MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK. 00Z AVN APPRS WELL INITIALIZED OVR ERN PAC PER ACARS DATA. STG SHRT WV TROF ASSOCD WITH 120 KT H3 JET CNTRD 50N/153W AT 06Z APCHS W CST TNGT. ASSOCD SFC CDFNT MOVS THRU WRN WA BTWN 06Z-12Z SAT. UPR LOW THEN PARKS OVR PAC NW SAT THRU MON FOR COOL AND RATHER UNSTBL CONDS. .SHRT TERM...MARINE AIR FLOODING INLD IN STG ONSHR FLOW BEING HELPED IN PART BY PRE-FRONTAL RDGG. -DZ RPRTD ON CST. XPC LCL -DZ INLD THIS MORNING AS MARINE LYR IS LFTD. MODELS PRVD LFT IN LEFT EXIT REG OF 80 KT H3 JET STREAK AS IT DIVES SSE JUST OFSHR INTO DESERT SW LOW. WHILE -RA SHOULD INCR ON CST THIS MORNING...INTR WL ONLY SEE VERY LGT AMTS AS DNSLP CONDS OFF OLYMPICS AND MTNS OF VRISL CMNCS IN H85 WLY FLOW. BEST RA CHCS INLD FRI NGT WITH CDFNT. PCPN THEN BCMS SHWRS SAT AS CDFNT PUSHES E OF CASCDS AND CD AIR ALF MOVS IN. CNVTV TEMPS SAT VCNTY OF UPR LOW IN LOWER 50S WITH H5 TEMPS M26-M28C. HENCE WL ADD CHC TSRA TO SAT FCST. .EXTDD...00Z AVN/MRF SIMILAR TO PREV MRF AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWING UPR LOW HANGING OVR PAC NW SUN. TROF OVR WA THEN SPLITS/WKNS MON-WED. SUN LOOKS COOL AND SHWRY WITH SLO IPVMT MON/TUE. ONLY MINOR CHGS TO PREVIOUS EXTDD FCST.

UIL 9++ SEA 677 OLM 688

.KATX...VCP32/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.

.SEW...SCA STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

...SYNOPSIS... A COLD UPPER LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND FOR DRYING AND SOME WARMING.

...DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY IS OVER THE LAS VEGAS AREA AND BASED ON SATELLITE PHOTOS AND RADAR IMAGERY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT THIS TIME. S/WV DID BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED NEAR YORBA LINDA LATE THURSDAY EVENING. HAD REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AT RUNNING SPRINGS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SHOW AT MT. LAGUNA IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY UNDER 0.10 INCH ALONG THE COAST BUT BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NOT MUCH RAIN FELL IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...HOWEVER.

THE 12Z ETA AND NGM BRING ANOTHER MINOR VORT MAX THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARMING IS TAKING ALOFT SO THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE ETA AND NGM INDICATE RIDGING WILL BEGIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRYING. RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK UP A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

NORTHWEST WIND NEAR POINT CONCEPTION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPIN UP AN EDDY OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD LIMIT ANY WARMING ALONG THE COAST.

MRF CONTINUES TO BRING THE NEXT LOW INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HEIGHTS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH SO ONLY IMPACT SHOULD BE A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND WIND IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS NEXT WEEK.. ECMWF IS SIMILAR EXCEPT THE LOW IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON.

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

SAN 400

.SAN...SMALL CRAFT ADV (SEE LAXCWFSGX).

HORTON