AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
AFDSEW 230 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 1999
ACARS SOUNDINGS VERIFY WELL WITH 03Z ETA/AVN PER 50H TEMPS HOWEVER
06Z WV IMAGRY SUGGESTS LOW CENTER IS CLOSER TO ETA. NGM TOO COLD/DEEP
HENCE DISREGARDING MOS. MINOR DIFFERENCES BTWN ETA/AVN BYD 06Z
HOWEVER PREFER SLIGHTLY HIR AMPLITUDE AVN THRU 48HRS SUPPORTED BY
REINFORCEMENT OF UPSTREAM JET THAT HELPS DEEPEN TROF THRU THE
WEEKEND. THIS STEARS CRUX OF ENERGY SE INTO OR. TIL THEN HOWEVER
WILL CONTINUE SCT -SHRA OVR CWA WITH SNOW LVLS LOWERING TO AROUND
4500 FT FRI. PGTSND CONV ZONE SUSTAINING ITSELF TODAY AND DISIPATING
THIS EVE AS 85H FLOW DMSHS AND SLY SFC GRADS TAKE OVR. MDLS BLD
PSUEDO RIDGE OVR BC SAT - WITH MAIN FLOW S INTO OR...THUS WILL END -
SHRA TONIGHT...XCPT CONTINUE SHRA/SHSN OVER MTNS PER ABOVE. LIKE IDEA
OF MDLS DIGGING TROF WITH INCRG UPSTREAM JET SAT/SUN...HENCE KEEPING
ENERGY CRUX ENERGY/MSTR IN OR SAT NIGHT. AS OVERALL TROF PULLS OUT
SUN LOOKS LIKE LIKE JUST WK INSTBY SHOWERS WILL DRAG ACROSS CWA
SUN...AMTS MNML IN NWLY FLOW. REGARDING 48-60 HR AVN...CAN'T BELIEVE
MOTHER NATURE WILL VERIFY SUCH A SOLN - AS VORT MAX ASSCD WITH
ALEUTIAN LOW JUMPS TRACKS FM NRN TO SRN BRANCH AND STRENGTHENS OVR
VRISL SAT NIGHT. XPCT SOME DEGREE OF INSTBY AS TROF MOVES OVERHEAD -
YET THAT SEEMS OVERDONE.
.XTND...NO NEW GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN VARIABILITY IN MDLS PAST COUPLE
DAYS...HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCES IN LONGER RANGE...HENCE NO LOGIC IN
MAKING CHANGES. MAQ.
SEA 431 OLM 431 UIL 621
.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.
.SEW...SCA STRAIT.