Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 06/26/99




A NEW PRODUCT, AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION, CHIAFDCHI/FXUS63 KLOT, WILL 

BE ISSUED IN ITS PLACE WITH THE DISCUSSION LIMITED TO THE WSFO 

SFDCHI CHICAGO FORECAST AREA OF MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND A PORTION OF 
NORTHWEST INDIANA. ISSUANCE TIMES FOR THE NEW PRODUCT WILL BE THE 
SAME AS FOR THE OLD. A SIMILAR PRODUCT, CHIAFDSPI/FXUS63 KILX, FOR 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME TIME NOW BUT 
WILL CHANGE TO CHIAFDILX/FXUS63 KILX ON JULY 7.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE, KY

AFDSDF 150 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 1999

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE 
COVERAGE OF THE RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING BKN-OVC CU FIELDS CONTINUING TO MOVE 
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING FROM SDF SHOWS A 
GOOD CAP BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB. THIS HAS PREVENTED ANY SHOWER 
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT THE CLOUDS HAVE REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH 
THIS INVERSION WHICH CONTINUES TO GET GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 
THE LOW LEVELS. OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS PROJECT THIS LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE TO LINGER DUE TO SURFACE-850MB THETAE ADVECTION. 
THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY IN TACT FOR THE STATE 
TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
STARTS ROTATING TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ALL THREE MODELS 
THROW AN IMPULSE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL 
KENTUCKY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ETA/NGM SHOW A DISTINCT BOUNDARY AT 
850 MB IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 
BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THERFORE...WE WILL GO 
AHEAD AND MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KY. FURTHER 
NORTH...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OUT 
...WE WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW AND LET THE LATER SHIFTS HANDLE THE TIMING OF 
IT. 

TOMORROW NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE MAIN SHORTWAVE 
ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THEREFORE...WE WILL MENTION 
LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS...BUT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE 
SCATTERED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN BWG OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE MAIN 
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH...WE STILL MAY HAVE SOME SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AROUND.  

TEMPERATURE WISE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW FWC NUMBERS DUE TO 
PERSISTENCE...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT 
OF LOW CLOUDS PRESENT.

.SDF...NONE.
COX




SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

AFDLOX 300 AM PDT SAT JUN 26 1999

LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT...EXCEPT FOR
SOME STRATUS/FOG OVER WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND ACROSS THE LA COAST. 
SATELLITE HINTS AT WEAK EDDY CIRCULATION. ACARS DATA INDICATES
MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1000 FEET. SATELLITE INDICATES ANOTHER
STRATUS SURGE INTO THE LA VALLEYS THIS MORNING...SO WILL BUMP UP
WORDING TO AREAS FOR ZONE 47...WITH ONLY PATCHY WORDING FOR VENTURA
VALLEYS.

FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE SOME H5 HEIGHT RISES OVERNIGHT
SO WILL ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY LOWER MARINE LAYER...WITH LESS STRATUS
AND FOG IN LA/VENTURA VALLEYS. FOR AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION
WILL GO WITH PATCHY/AREAS WORDING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING IN 
LINE WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING THIS MORNING. FOR MOUNTAIN/DESERT AREAS
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY.

AS FOR WINDS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
BREEZES IN THE DESERTS/MOUNTAINS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO...WILL 
CONTINUE TO HAVE WEAK SUNDONWER WINDS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 
SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY AS NORTHERLY OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY...UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAK SO DO 
NOT EXPECT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS.

AS FOR TEMPS...ANY CHANGES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HARDLY BE
NOTICEABLE. TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS FRIDAY OR MAYBE A 
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF MARINE INFLUENCE. 
ON SUNDAY...WILL ANTICIPATE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMING WITH 
SLIGHTLY INCREASING THICKNESSES AND BIT SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER. 

FOR EXTENDED...MODELS INDICATE ONLY MINOR SYNOPTIC CHANGES THROUGH
EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL...WILL EXPECT CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS FOR COASTAL
SECTIONS. AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LAX 000. THOMPSON.

.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFLAX.