SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
AFDLOX 300 AM PDT THU JUL 1 1999
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CLOUD PATTERN FROM 24 HRS AGO...WITH LOW CLDS IN
PLACE ACRS MUCH OF THE CSTL PLAIN. ACARS SOUNDINGS AND PROFILER DATA
INDICATE BASE OF MARINE INVERSION BETWEEN 1200-1400 FT AND INVERISON
TOP ARD 2000 FT...ABT 200 FT OR SO HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. WITH CONTD
STG ONSHR FLOW...AREAS OF LOW CLDS AND FOG SHOULD PUSH INTO MANY VLY
LOCATION THIS MORNING. SRN CA WIND ANALYSIS SHOWS WK EDDY CRCLN IN
PROGRESS...HANDLED QUITE WELL BY THE 03Z ETA. WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
MARINE INVERSION...XPCT THAT DENSE FOG WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WDSPRD AS
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...ALTHOUGH LCLLY DENSE FOG IS STILL LIKELY.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING GRADUAL LWRG OF HGTS OVR THE
FCST AREA DURG THE NEXT 48 HRS AS STG UPR HIGH ACRS SRN CA WKNS AND STG
UPR LOW PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW. 03Z ETA INDICATES A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
AND MORE WELL DEFINED EDDY CRCLN DVLPG LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...
WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOWERING HGTS...SHOULD HELP MARINE LYR
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT BY FRI.
WITH HGTS/THICKNESSES LOWERING EVER SO SLGHTLY TODAY...AND H85 AND
BOUNDARY LYR TEMPS CHANGING LTL...XPCT LTL CHG OR A DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING ACRS MTNS AND DSTRS. IN SPITE OF VERY HIGH HGTS...STG ONSHR
FLOW OFF COOLER THAN NORMAL OCEAN HAS KEPT TEMPS ON CSTL PLAIN NEAR
OR EVEN SLGTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION...MARINE LYR NEVER
BECAME SHALLOW ENOUGH THIS WEEK TO TOTALLY KNOCK THE MARINE INFLUENCE
OUT OF THE VLYS...KEEPING VLYS A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN THE UPR PATTERN
MIGHT HAVE SUGGESTED. SINCE MARINE INFLUENCE WAS NEVER ELIMINATED FROM
THE VLYS...SLGT DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR THIS MORNING SHOULD HAVE
ONLY MINOR COOLING IMPACT ON VLY TEMPS TODAY.
ON FRI...HGTS AND THICKNESSES DROP A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND
TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. INCRSG ONSHR FLOW
AND APCHG TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE FAIRLY STG WINDS IN ACRS THE DSRTS ON
FRI...WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THOSE TRAVELING INTO OR THRU THAT
AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE WEEKEND ITSELF...MODELS CONT YESTERDAYS TREND IN SHOWING
STG VORT PULLING NEWD FROM THE PAC NW LOW...LEAVING A WEAK POS TILT
TROUGH ALG AND JUST OFF THE PAC NW CST. HGTS REACH THEIR NADIR ACRS
SRN CA ON SAT...THEN REBOUND DURG THE WEEKEND AS A VERY STG UPR HIGH
RETROGRADES TOWARD CA FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. LOOKS LIKE SAT
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY ACRS THE FCST AREA...WITH FAIRLY STG ONSHR
FLOW AND MOST EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD PATTERN. NEVERTHELESS...STILL XCPT
TEMPS ON SAT TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN FRI IN MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST...AS
UPR HIGH REBUILDS BACK TO THE W...TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOS RISE...
AND MARINE LYR BEGINS TO DCRS IN DEPTH. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MSTR ACRS THE SRN AND ERN MTNS AND DSRTS SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT XPCT THAT TO BE BEYOND XTNDD PERIOD.
LAX 000. BRUNO.
.LAX...NONE.
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
AFDLOX 900 PM PDT WED JUN 30 1999
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO (MUST BE SUMMER). LOW CLOUDS INTO
MOST COASTAL AREAS BUT NO DENSE FOG REPORTED AS OF YET. ACARS/PROFILER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE LAYER ABOUT 1K DEEP. ONSHORE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE (LAX-DAG WAS +7.3 MB AT 03Z). WINDS IN OUTER WATERS STILL
15KT OR LESS. A WEAK EDDY SHOULD SPIN UP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
JUST SQUEAKING INTO LAX COUNTY VALLEYS AFTER DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG MAY GET INTO THE SANTA YNEZ VLY LATE TONITE AS WELL.
OOZ ETA/NGM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ELONGATED 500 MB RIDGE TO SPLIT
IN TWO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS (ONE PIECE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC...
OTHER PIECE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL U.S.) AS A LONG WAVE TROF DEVELOPS
ALONG THE W COAST. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES GRADUALLY LOWER OVER THE
DISTRICT DURING THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENING SLIGHLY BY FRIDAY. MORE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ZONE UPDATES THIS EVENING.
IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER TROF ALONG W COAST LINGERS WITH A GOOD UPPER
LOW INTO PAC NW SAT AND SUN...THEN SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS WEST INTO SOCAL FOR MON. THE USUAL COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH SEAONABLE TEMPS (MILD
AT THE COAST...WARM TO HOT IN VALLEYS...AND HOT OVER DESERTS). THE MRF
DOES BRING IN SOME 500 MB MOISTURE INTO EXTREME SERN CA MON BUT IS
VERY DRY BELOW THIS SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION IN THOSE AREAS
MON.
LAX 0000. SIRARD.
.LAX...NONE.