Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 07/03/99

RATHER LARGE EDDY CIRCULATION CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS SHOWN IN LATEST SATTELITE IMAGES AND COASTAL WINDS. CENTER OF EDDY IS WELL SOUTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND BUT ELONGATES UP THE COAST INTO LGB AREA. WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS (+9.2 MB LAX-DAG AT 03Z)...SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING NW WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS...THE EDDY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THRU SAT. MARINE LAYER DEPTH ACCORDING TO 00Z VBG AND NKX SOUNDINGS WAS 2K TO 2500 FEET. LATEST ACARS/PROFILER SOUNDINGS SHOW MARINE LAYER IN THIS RANGE NEAR LAX AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EASILY MAKE INTO THE VALLEYS AND LOWER COASTAL SLOPES LATER TONIGHT.

00Z ETA/NGM CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LOW OVEXTHE PAC NW TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE THRU SUN AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE NATION BEGINS TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE SWRN U.S. INCLUDING SOCAL. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH THICKNESSES REMAINING FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH SUN. WITH HEIGHTS RISING SAT NITE AND SUN THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN SOME...ALTHOUGH THE NGM SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPS MAY NOT INCREASE FROM SAT TO SUN. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES. ETA A BIT MORE BULLISH IN RAISING 850 MB TEMPS FROM SAT TO SUN. LOOKS LIKE HI TEMPS ON SAT ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY...THEN WARMER ON SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

ALEADY UPDATED ZONES AT 740 PM MAINLY FOR WORDING ON CLOUDS AND TWEAKED SOME TEMPS.

IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EXTENDS INTO SOCAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SELY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOCAL. THE MRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS AT 600 MB AND ABOVE MAINLY TUE AND WED. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUE OVER SRN AND ERN DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST DESERT AND MOUNTAIN AREAS FOR WED. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES... ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

LAX 0000. SIRARD.

.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFLAX.

SAT PIX SHOW LOW CLDS/PTCHY FOG ACRS CSTL AND NEARLY ALL VLY LOCATIONS ATTM...A COUPLE OF HRS EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY. THE MARINE LYR...WHICH ACTUALLY DEEPENED ENOUGH EARLY FRI MORNING TO PUSH CLDS INTO CSTL MTN SLOPES FOR A COUPLE OF HRS...HAS DEEPENED A BIT MORE. ACARS...PROFILER DATA AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE LYR DEPTH OF ARD 3000 FT OR SLGTLY HIGHER. STG ONSHR GRADS HAVE CONTD TO INCRS ACRS THE FCST AREA DURG THE PAST 24 HRS...PRODUCING SOME FAIRLY STG WINDS ACRS THE ANTELOPE VLY. MDT EDDY CRCLN IN PROGRESS ACRS CSTL WATERS...ONCE AGAIN HANDLED WELL BY 03Z FRI ETA...AND FIRST FEW PERIODS OF 03Z SAT ETA.

MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING STG UPR LOW OVER PAC NW GRADUALLY LIFTING NEWD AS A STG VORT ZOOMS INTO CANADA. HWVR...BROAD TROFINESS AND CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING SWD ALG THE W CST TO THE MEXICAN BORDER WILL CONT INTO TONIGHT...UNTIL UPR HIGH OVER TX RETROGRADES/BLDS WWD TOWARD SRN CA CAUSING RISING HGTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BY LATE SUN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR EDDY CRCLN TO CONT INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRI. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LCL DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH STG ONSHR GRADS AND CYCLONIC FLOW. BLV CLRING WL BE LATER IN MOST AREAS TODAY. MANY BEACH AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLR TODAY...JUST LIKE FRI...AND HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING NEAR THE BEACHES. ONSHR GRADS A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO WINDS MAY WELL APCH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.

XPCT TEMPS TO BE A BIT LOWER IN MOST AREAS THAN ON FRI WITH LATER CLRG...STG ONSHR FLOW AND DEEPER MARINE LYR. 03Z ETA SHOWS A WKR EDDY CRCLN TONIGHT...BUT MARINE LYR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP...AS UPR RDG BLDG WWD WILL NOT HAVE HAD NEARLY ENOUGH TIME TO WORK ON IT. WITH CONTD STG ONSHR GRADS...XPCT ST TO REACH ALL VLY LOCATIONS AND CSTL SLOPES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. RISING HGTS/THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS SHOULD CAUSE SOME WARMING TO BEGIN ON SUN IN THE MTNS AND DSRTS...BUT LTL CHANGE IN MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD LEAD TO LTL CHG IN TEMPS IN CSTL AND VLY AREAS. ONLY IF MARINE LYR BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SHALLOW BY SUNDAY WOULD THE VLYS SHOW LARGE INCREASES IN TEMPS... AND THAT IS QUITE UNLIKELY. HWVR...LOOKS LIKE ONSHR GRADS WILL DECRS A BIT SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT QUICKER AND BETTER CLRG ON SUN. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW DEGS OF WARMING ON SUN... ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CST. LOOKING AHEAD...WWD BLDG UPR HIGH SHOULD CAUSE MARINE LYRN DEPTH TO DECRS SUN NIGHT AND MON. LOW CLDS WILL NOT BE AS WDSPRD IN THE VLYS SUN NIGHT AND CLRG SHOULD BE EARLIER AND MORE COMPLETE ON MON. AS H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES RISES...LOOK FOR A FEW DEGS OF WARMING IN THE MTNS AND DSRTS...WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING LIKELY ON MON IN MANY VLY LOCATIONS PENDING THE REDUCTION IN MARINE LYR DEPTH. UPR HIGH SETS UP ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS ARE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK...AND HIGH THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TEMPS TO ABV NORMAL LVLS ACRS MTNS...DSRTS AND AT LEAST INLAND VLYS MON THRU WED. CONTD ONSHR FLOW SHOULD LIMIT WARMING ON CSTL PLAIN...BUT TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

SOME MID AND HIGH LVL MSTR IS FCST TO EDGE INTO THE SRN AND ERN DSRTS BY LATE MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MSTR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO CA. HWVR...DRY LOW LVLS SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION MON. CURRENT FCST OF A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTSMS FOR TUE AND WED ACRS THE MTNS AND DSRTS LOOKS REASONABLE AS SFC MSTR BEGINS TO INCREASE.

LAX 000. BRUNO.

.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFLAX.