AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
AFDSEW 835 AM PDT SUN JUL 11 1999
LARGE SCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WRN US RETROGRADES TO 145W. BY MON AFTERNOON
RATHER STRONG H5 HEIGHT RISES 145W FORCE AN UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED
WITH A 1003 MB LOW 55N/145W TO DRIVE SEWD ACROSS BC.
.SHORT TERM...WLY FLOW AND HIGH HEIGHTS COMBINE WITH WEAK THERMAL
TROFING E OF THE CASCADES...WEAK ONSHORE PRES GRADIENTS...AND SHALLOW
COASTAL MARINE MOISTURE FOR SLOW COOLING...BUT OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE
THRU MON. FOG AND STRATUS ON COAST AND THRU STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
SHALLOW WITH TOPS 500-1200 FT. GAP STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF
RAPIDLY...WHILE THE COAST TAKES AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER. LOCAL STUDY
BASED ON TEMPERATURES ALOFT...KUIL SOUNDING...AND ACARS DATA SUGGEST
MAX TEMPERATURES 80-81 TODAY...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. ANOTHER DEG OR
TWO COOLING MON WITH CONTINUED WLY GRADIENTS. ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED TO FINE LOOKING MIDNIGHT PACKAGE.
.EXTENDED...STILL ON TRACK FOR MODERATE TO STRONG NW PUSH MON
PM...FOLLOWED BY NLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BIT COOLER CONDITIONS TUE-WED.
EVENTUALLY NLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES SUFFICIENT OFFSHORE FLOW THU AND
FRI FOR GRADUAL WARMING. WILL AWAIT 12Z AVN TO MAKE CHANGES TO
EXTENDED.
UIL 111 SEA 000 OLM 000
.KATX...VCP32/CSR32...OPERATIONAL.
.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.