AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO IL
AFDCHI 258 AM CDT WED JUL 14 1999
06Z SFC ANLYS SHOWS LOW PRES OVR NRN PLNS...WITH DECENT PRESSURE
TROF EXTNDG EAST ACRS SRN MN INTO CNTRL WI. TSTMS DVLPG ALNG BNDRY
IN ERN MN/WRN WI...VCNTY OF H85 THETA-E GRADIENT AND NOSE OF 35KT
LLJ. MID LVL FLOW STILL NWRLY...AND MAIN CONCERN THIS AM IS HOW FAR
SE THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT BEFORE DISSIPATING IN DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR OVR FA. ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF RFD SHOW GNRLY STABLE
CONDTNS BLO H7...SO EXPCT ELEVATED TSTMS TO CONT TO WKN AS THEY
DRIFT SE AWAY FROM BEST INFLOW. WL MONITOR UP UNTIL ZONE TIME IN
CASE A MENTION OF -SHRA IS NEEDED THIS AM FOR NRN COUNTIES.
OTWRS...GIVEN AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS UPSTREAM WL GO PTLY SUNNY
INSTEAD OF SUNNY...AND WL UNDERCUT SIMILAR FAN/FWC GUIDANCE A DEG OR
TWO TDY.
SLGT CHC COULD SEE REPEAT TNGT...WITH CONVECTIVE REMNANTS SLIPPING
INTO FAR NRN IL...HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR IN BUILDING UPPER
RDG OVER AREA THRU 48 HRS...AND HEIGHT FALLS OVR DAKS SHOULD REFOCUS
LO LVL JET FARTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN TUE NGT. WL CONT DRY
FCST...WITH TREND TOWARD SLOW WRMG THRU REST OF FCST PD. FAN/FWC
VERY CLOSE AND ACCECPTED FOR REST OF PD...ALTHOUGH PREFER SLIGHTLY
WARMER FWC MINS ESPCLY CHI AREA.
.CHI...NONE.
RATZER