AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
AFDSAC 925 PM PDT MON JUL 19 1999
CELLULAR CLOUDINESS THAT EARLIER DEVELOPED OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS A RESULT OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION. CLOUDS
WERE GENERATED IN UPPER DEFORMATION AREA ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED
CIRCULATION NOW CENTERED AROUND 38N 125W. SAID CIRCULATION IS
HANDLED QUITE SIMILARLY BY THE NEW ETA AND NGM WITH A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION TO AROUND EUREKA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WITH
HELP OF ACARS DATA...APPEARS THAT STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A MORE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THIS FEATURE. BUT LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING
JUST TO OUR EAST POINTS TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION. WILL NEED TO WAIT
AND SEE. OTHERWISE...BUYING INTO THE SLOWER SOLUTION FOR NOW...LOOKS
LIKE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEFORMATION AXIS WILL COME INTO PLAY AGAIN
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STABILITY
PARAMETERS DEPICT ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SO PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
SLIGHT CHANCES LOOK GOOD.
NEXT WAVE AROUND 55N 135W IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD...THEN
RETROGRADE AS A 100KT UPPER JET DIGS ON ITS WEST SIDE. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WAVE WILL PULL THE MEAN TROUGH FAR ENOUGH
OFF SHORE TO KEEP OUR MOUNTAINS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL AS HEIGHTS ARE ALLOWED A SLIGHT
RECOVERY. PROGGED UPSTREAM RIDGING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOULD
INHIBIT FURTHER RETROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE LATE WEDNESDAY....THEN
ACT AS A KICKER SO THAT THE TROUGH LIFTS BACK THROUGH NORCAL LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST AREA WIDE ALONG WITH A THREAT OF AFTERNOON OR
EVENING CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
.STO...NONE
JUSKIE