Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 07/22/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
AFDSAC 920 PM PDT WED JUL 21 1999

WATER VAPOR INDICATES NEXT CIRCULATION NOW CENTERED NEAR 40N 135W... CLOSE TO MODEL PROGS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...HELPING TO STAGNATE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH ACARS DATA SHOWING STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS STILL WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTERED AROUND 140W. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING AROUND 00Z FRIDAY...LEADING TO MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSEQUENT DYNAMICS/UPPER DEFORMATION LOOK SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST CONVECTIVE THREAT IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE THINGS WELL IN HAND AND SEE NO REASON TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.

EVEN WHEN BUYING INTO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LINGERING CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY IN OUR MOUNTAINS BASED SOLELY ON TROUGH POSITION. DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER THEN FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.STO...NONE

JUSKIE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
AFDSEW 915 AM PDT THU JUL 22 1999

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT ADDS UP TO STRATUS DECK COVERING MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. MORNING TOP REPORTS RANGING FROM 1300 TO 2000 FEET. USING KUIL ALONG WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS GIVES BREAKOUT TEMPERATURE AROUND 62 DEGREES. YESTERDAYS BREAKOUT OCCURRED AROUND 3 PM. WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECT TODAYS TO BE A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER. DONT WORRY MARINER FANS...YOU WILL BE IN THE SUNSHINE. FIRST LOOK AT NEW MODEL RUNS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EJECTING NE AND WEAKENING FRI AFTERNOON MEETING UP WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN BC COAST LEAVING WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WA SAT MORNING. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WORST DAY OF THE NEXT FIVE. IN THE MEANTIME MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING TROF WILL CUT MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT PACKAGE. FELTON UIL 122 SEA 00- OLM 0-1

.KATX...VCP31/CSR31...OPERATIONAL .SEW...NONE.