SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
AFDMFR 230 PM PDT FRI JUL 23 1999
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 12 HRS...BUT SOLUTIONS DIFFER FROM
THERE. THE NGM/AVN ARE A BIT SLOWER AND STRONGER WHILE THE ETA IS
FASTER AND WEAKER. 12Z AIRCRAFT REPORTS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC HAD MAX
WINDS AT 250MB OF 70KTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW. A LOOK AT 18Z
GOES DERIVED WINDS AT 250MB SHOWS MAX WINDS AROUND 60 KTS. WE WILL
OPT FOR THE SLOWER NGM/AVN SOLUTION AND CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT COAST. VORT MAX FORECAST TO BE
NEAR THE OR/ID BORDER 18Z SAT. CLEARING AND WARMING TREND IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SAT AND SUN. EXPECT DRIZZLE AND
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.
THERMAL TROF TO BUILD LATE SAT AND SUN WITH INCREASING WINDS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
EXTENDED SHOWS BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PAC NW WITH A SHORT
WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL. PLATT/HOLTZ
.MFR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ZONES 624 AND 625.
MFR BB 058/085 052/089 053 052000
LMT BB 042/078 044/083 045 052210
RBG BB 056/080 053/084 055 051000
4BK EE 052/064 050/065 053 051100
OTH EE 050/066 051/067 053 051100
YKA BB 048/083 044/088 047 052100
MHS BB 041/075 040/080 042 052100
AAT BB 037/079 039/083 041 052210