Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 07/27/99

INITIALIZATION OF MDLS WITH ACARS AND PLOT FILES FAVORS ETA/NGM PER 85/70/50H TEMPS AND WINDS ALF TO 25H. AVN ODD MDL OUT - UNDERDOING JET ALG 55N BY 20-25KTS...WHICH LEADS TO MRF QUESTIONS. ETA HAS BEST HANDLE ON VORT MAX NR QUEEN CHARLOTTES. ONE NOTE...THE ACTUAL 85/70H WINDS ARE A BIT MORE SELY THAN ALL MDLS...HENCE MAY KEEP MARINE LAYER SHALLOWER WITH SLIGHTLY DELAYED ONSHORE PUSH. WHILE AXIS OF THERMAL TROF APPEARS TO BE E OF CASCDS...24H CHG OF ETA/NGM 85H TEMPS SHOWS 1C WARMING ALG CST AND 2C WARMING OVR PGTSND BY 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. FG/ST LYR ALG COAST ENHANCING AND SLOWLY SPRDG INLND THIS MORNING. BY TIME LYR GETS TO PGTSND XPCT IT TO BE PAPER THIN AND PTCHY THIS MORNING. ALL THAT TO SAY WILL BUMP UP TEMPS 0-2 DEGREES OVR MST INLND AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HOLDING ANOTHER 24 HRS TO BRING WARMER TEMPS TO FOOTHILLS. WHILE ONSHORE PUSH LOOKS BEST FOR WED AS UPR LVL TROF SWINGS DOWN FM B.C. CST WITH ASSOCD WLY FLOW SKIMMING NRN WA... DO NOT WANT TO UNDERESTIMATE INCRG MOIST SLY FLOW AND ADVECTION OF MID LVL MSTR NWD. HENCE WILL COORDINATE WITH PDX AND TO DETERMINE AGREED NRN POINT FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WED. .XTNDD...GIVEN DISCREPANCIES IN AVN/REALITY A BIT SUSPECT OF MRF. YET TIL THAT TIME QUESTION AMPLITUDE OF APCHG WAVE FOR THU/FRI IN THAT IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY FLATTER...HENCE NOT QUITE THE COOLING TREND CURRENTLY FCST. YET PREFER TO SEE MORE MDL RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TONIGHT. HENCE WILL LEAVE ALL AS IS. QUERCIAGROSSA.

UIL 111 SEA 000 OLM 000

.KATX...VCP31/CSR31...OPERATIONAL .SEW...NONE.

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. MULTIPLE TOP REPORTS ALONG THE COAST AND W OF CHEHALIS INDICATING TOPS 1000 TO 1500 FEET. WITH LIGHT GRADIENT SFC GRADIENTS PATTERN NOT ADDING TO THE ALREADY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BURN OFF WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR INLAND AND MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST. KUIL SOUNDING AND ACARS SOUNDINGS HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY OVER WESTERN WA. LOCAL MAX TEMP STUDY INDICATES 3 DEGREES OF WARMING FOR KSEA. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. FIRST LOOK AT NEW MODEL RUNS SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WED AFTERNOON AND SOME FORM OF A PUSH FOR WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. MORE ON THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN NO CHANGES TO CURRENT PACKAGE. FELTON

UIL 111 SEA 000 OLM 000

.KATX...VCP31/CSR31...OPERATIONAL .SEW...NONE.