Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 07/28/99

...SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. A MINOR INTRUSION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY WARM TO HOT WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

...DISCUSSION... LTL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES IMPACTING SRN CA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH MINOR DAY TO DAY OSCILLATIONS IN THE POSITION OF THE WK UPR TROUGH OFF THE W CST AND THE BROAD UPR RDG OVR THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THIS WL CONTINUE THE SLY FLOW ALF AND WK ONSHR LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS SRN CA WITH MINOR INTRUSIONS OF MONSOONAL MSTR. DEEPER MONSOONAL MSTR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALG THE LWR CO RVR VLY E INTO AZ.

MARINE LYR...EVENING ACARS/RAOB SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MARINE LYR DEPTH AROUND 2000 FT...A LTL DEEPER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. WK ONSHR FLOW WL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER RESOLUTION MDLS (COAMPS/RUC) NOT FORECASTING A CSTL EDDY TONIGHT AND LWR RESOLUTION MDLS NOT SHOWING THE NECESSARY SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR AN EDDY. SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WK EDDY FORMATION WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. HENCE...LTL CHANGE FM THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH NIGHT/MORNING CSTL STRATUS MOST EXTENSIVE SAN CST/VLYS AND ORANGE COUNTY CSTL PLAIN WITH ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE EXTENDING INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE.

MONSOONAL MSTR...ETA HAS BEEN PERFORMING REASONABLY WELL IN SHOWING THE MINOR MID LVL MONSOONAL MSTR INTRUSIONS INTO SRN CA. FOR WED... SOME DRYING IS SHOWN ABV 500 MB WITH SOME INCR IN MSTR BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB. ETA ALSO BRINGS A SURGE OF LWR LVL MSTR...BLO 800 MB...INTO THE DESERTS E OF THE MTNS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS INCR IN LOW LVL MSTR FOR THE SRN AND ERN DESERTS OF SRN CA IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELY WAVE MOVG WWD ACROSS SRN AZ. THE ETA MOVES THIS WAVE WWD TO A POSITION ALG THE LWR CO RVR VLY BY EARLY WED MORNING...WITH THE ELY WAVE REMAINING NRLY STATIONARY FOR WED. THIS SHOULD INCR LOW LVL MSTR SUFFICIENTLY FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WED AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS FROM THE SBD MOUNTAINS S THRU THE SAN COUNTY MTNS. HAVE UPDATE THE MTN ZONES TO INCR POPS A LTL FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TO USE AREAL COVERAGE INSTEAD OF LIKELIHOOD TERMINOLOGY. SAN 0000

.SAN...NONE.

MARTIN

A BRIEF BREAK IN REAL SUMMER NEXT FEW DAYS AND THEN WOO HOO! TEMP/WIND INITIALIZATIONS FM PLOT FILES AND ACARS AT ALL LVLS SUPPORTING NGM AND OLD ETA WELL. YET 120-130KT WLY JET ALG 60N ABOUT 30-50KTS STRONGER THAN OLD AVN. MARINE LYR ADVECTING INLAND QUICKLY WITH ONSHORE GRADS INCRG...+2MB STRONGER THAN 24HRS AGO. THERMAL GRADS ACRS WA XPCTD TO BE MUCH STRONGER TODAY...AND XPCT ONSHORE GRADS TO INCRS THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS OCCURRING EARLY AFTENROON AS MOISTURE INCRS IN LOW LVLS DURING AFTERNOON. 24H 85H TEMPS DOWN 2-3C...WHILE CURRENT SFC TEMPS +3 TO +7F THAN 24HRS AGO. MORE OBVIOUS ELEMENT IS SHALLOW TROF OVR B.C. THU AND EARLY FRI THAT MOVES E WHILE STRONG 4-CORNER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NW THIS WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS OVR PGTSND AREA...OR SLIGHTLY N WITH SELY FLOW ALF AND INCRG MID LVL MOISTURE W OF RIDGE AXIS. DEFORMATION AREA OVR WRN WA BY SUN ALSO. THUS XPCT CONVECTION TO SLIDE NW ALG AXIS INTO WRN WA SUN. IN COORDINATION WITH PDX... FOR NOW WILL KEEP WRN WA OUT OF TS CHANCES SAT... BUT ADD THEM SUN. AS FOR TEMPS... OBVIOUS COOLING WITH MARINE AIR... YET 85H TEMPS SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FCST THU/FRI. HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE WARMING WITH SELY FLOW AND BLDG RIDGE SAT/SUN. THIS WEEKEND COULD BE WARMEST YET! QUERCIAGROSSA

UIL 112 SEA 001 OLM 001

.KATX...VCP32/CSR32...OPERATIONAL .SEW...SCA MIDCHANNEL CENTRAL STRAIT.

VERY LITTLE NEW DATA TO LOOK AT THIS MORNING. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLOSED LOW ABOUT 133/38. DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND AZ. IN BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND MOISTURE TO THE EAST IS A S-N ORIENTED JET EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF PT CONCEPTION THE CA/OR BOARDER. FOR NOW...THESE FEATURES ARE CHANGING LITTLE AND DO NOT SEE ANY CHANGE THRU 36HRS PER NEW ETA. THUS...CURRENT DRY FCST LOOKS FINE.

VERY DEEP MARINE LAYER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR /2.5-3K/ IS SPILLING INTO THE VALLEY. TEMPS RUNNING 1-3 DEGS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IT IS SHALLOW COOLING...BELOW 2K PER FAT AIRCRAFT SOUNDING. THIS WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE SURFACE GRADS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. POPS ZERO. BINGHAM

.HNX...NONE.