EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
AFDSAN 315 AM PDT MON AUG 9 1999
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AND WEAKEN TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
...DISCUSSION...
ETA/AVN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVG THE CLOSED UPR LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CA CST SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...THEN MOVG IT INLAND INTO CNTRL CA
TUE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WED IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPSTREAM KICKER DIGGING SOUTH ALG THE CNTRL BRITISH COLUMBIA CST.
GREATEST DECR IN HEIGHTS ALF OVR SWRN CA...THOUGH NOT ALL THAT GREAT
AT AROUND 40 METERS...OCCURS THRU THIS AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS CHANGE
LTL FOR TUE...THEN BEGIN TO REBUILD WED AS THE UPR LOW WKNS AND
SHEARS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WK ONSHR
LOW LVL FLOW WL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CA THRU WED. SUN EVENING ACARS
SOUNDINGS AND RAOBS SHOWED THE BASE OF A WK MARINE INVERSION NR 1000
FT LAX AND 2000 FT ONT/SAN...LTL CHANGED IN HEIGHT AND STRENGTH FM
24 HOURS AGO. EXPECT LTL CHANGE IN STRATUS PATTERN THIS MORNING FM
24 HOURS AGO (I.E. ...AREAS SAN COUNTY...PATCHY ELSEWHERE THIS
MORNING). WL CONFINE "AREAS" WORDING FOR STRATUS TONIGHT/TUE MORNING
TO SRNMOST AREAS AS WK HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCD LIFT AND COOLING ALF
SHOULD FURTHER WKN THE WK INVERSION OVR THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WL USE PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR THOSE AREAS TONIGHT DUE TO
THE WEAKNESS OF THE INVERSION. PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING THIS MORNING
FOR NW HALF OF FORECAST AREA IS DUE TO HIGH LVL MSTR MOVG QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA. MDLS BRING IT ABOUT AS FAR S AS ORANGE COUNTY WITH
THE HIGH LVL MSTR EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ETA/AVN REASONABLY WELL INITIALIZED WITH THE MID LVL MSTR ASSOCD
WITH THE VORT MAX DIGGING S ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR LOW...NR
33N/127W AT 06Z. THOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TRACK OF
THIS MID LVL MSTR IN THE ETA/AVN...BOTH TAKE THE BULK OF THIS MSTR
INLAND INTO CNTRL CA AND NRN SXNS OF SRN CA...BOTH KPG THE MSTR TO
THE N AND W OF LOS ANGELES. THOUGH BOTH ETA/AVN MOVE THIS SHORTWAVE
INLAND INTO SRN CA THIS EVENING...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCD WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO NOT EXTEND S OF LOS
ANGELES DUE TO LACK OF MSTR AND GENERALLY WK DYNAMICS FOR THE SRN
HALF OF SRN CA.
BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...THEN A SLOW
WARMING TREND BEGINNING WED. EXTENDED MDLS KP A WK TROUGH ALG THE W
CST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...HENCE MONSOONAL MSTR SHOULD REMAIN E OF
SWRN CA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SAN 000
.SAN...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW ALONG CST
NEXT FEW DAYS...SEE LAXMWSSAN.
MARTIN