EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
AFDSAN 930 PM PDT MON AUG 9 1999
...SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
...DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING PAST 24 HOURS PER KNKX RAOB.
ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF KSNA SHOWS WEAKENED INVERSION...LIKELY DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST...ACCOUNTING FOR RELATIVE
LACK OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ORANGE COUNTY COAST. THE 12Z ETA MODEL
VERIFIED BEST FOR THE FIRST GUESS BASED ON THE SOUNDING PROFILES SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 00Z ETA MODEL SOLUTION. WILL MAKE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO TONIGHT AND TUESDAYS FORECAST TO ADD SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME CLOUDS TO SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS/APPLE
VALLEY ZONES...AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MOSTLY A LITTLE
COOLER...TO TEMPERATURES THERE AND OTHER ZONES. THE THREE TO SIX
DEGREE WARMUP FOR MOST ZONES ON WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME.
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW STILL A THREAT NEXT SEVERAL EVENINGS DUE TO
SPRING TIDES RUNNING ABOVE 7 FOOT THRESHOLD. MANUAL SWELL COMPUTE
FROM FETCH AREAS WITH HURRICANES TO THE SOUTH ONLY YIELDS ABOUT A
1 FT SWELL FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM GALE
OFF CHILE ABOUT A WEEK AGO WILL ALSO BE AFFECTING THE AREA. THESE
TWO SWELL GROUPS WILL ADD A HALF TO ONE FOOT TO ASTRONOMICAL WATER
LEVEL PREDICTIONS.
SAN 000
.SAN...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW ALONG CST
NEXT FEW DAYS...SEE LAXMWSSAN.
BALFOUR