Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 08/15/99

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT EDDY IN PROGRESS. LATEST ACARS DATA INDICATE MARINE LYR DEPTH WAS AROUND 2000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH EDDY CONTINUING TONIGHT AND HEIGHTS FALLING SLIGHTLY...EXPECT THAT TO RISE ABOUT 500 FEET OR SO. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING ONSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD ALLOW MARINE LYR TO EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE VALLEYS AND PERHAPS EVEN ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES...ALTHOUGH THAT IS VERY BORDERLINE. THIS WILL BRING COOLING JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION SUN...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

ALONG THE CENTRAL CST...MARINE LYR HAS EVAPORATED AND RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS (IF ANY) WILL BE LATE AND CONFINED TO THE CST AND CSTL VALLEYS. REMOVED LOW CLOUDS FROM INTERIOR SLO VALLEYS AS GRADIENTS HAVE REVERSED AND ARE NOW ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL OR VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY (WHICH ALSO EXPLAINS THE WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY). EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE SUNDAY...BUT WILL INDICATE SLIGHT COOLING MONDAY ALONG THE CST DUE TO MORE MARINE LYR CLOUDS AND AN EARLIER RETURN OF THE SEE BREEZE. INLAND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A BIT MONDAY DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE CA/AZ BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THAT THRU MON AS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE.

EXPECT SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO TUE AND WED WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID AND UPR LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF MONSOONAL STORMS IN OUR CWA ANYTIME SOON.

LAX 0000. WOFFORD

.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFLAX.

SAT IMAGERY AND SRN CA WND ANALYSIS INDICATE EDDY CRCLN IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS A.M.. ST HAS WORKED ACRS THE L.A. CNTY CSTL PLAIN AND INTO MANY L.A. CNTY VLY AREAS AS WELL. LOW CLDS HAVE NOT YET PUSHED NWWD INTO CSTL VTU CNTY...BUT BLV THAT IT WILL BE JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. 03Z ETA DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE LOW LVL RH AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCD WITH EDDY CRCLN...AND SHOWS...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WK SE-SLY FLOW PERSISTING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS ACRS THE INNER CSTL WATERS. THEREFORE...LIKE YESTERDAY...XPCT IMDT CSTL AREAS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME CLRG COMPLETELY TODAY. AFTER COMPLETE CLRG OF STRATUS FROM CSTL SNXS N OF PT CONCEPTION...SOME LOW CLDS HAVE RECENTLY DVLPD ACRS W CSTL SBA COUNTY AND SHOULD CONT TO FILL IN BEFORE SUNRISE.

ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS AND ACARS DATA...MARINE LYR WAS RUNNING BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FT ACRS NRN SXNS...AND CLOSER TO 2000 FT FARTHER S. COMBINATION OF WK UPR TROUGH JUST W OF SRN CA AND CONTG EDDY CRCLN SHOULD ALLOW MARINE LYR TO DEEPEN A BIT MORE AND ONSHR PUSH WL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO SEND WDSPRD LOW CLOUDS THRU ALL L.A. CNTY VLYS. IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...LOW CLDS TYPICALLY HAVE THE MOST DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING INTO VTU COUNTY VLYS AS WELL AS THE SBA CNTY S CST. BLV THAT BY MORNING...AT LEAST PATCHY AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS AS WELL. ACRS SRN SBA CNTY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLDS MAY EVEN INCRS AFTER SUNRISE AND LINGER INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL UPR LVL PATTERN THRU 48 HRS...SHOWING LTL CHG TODAY WITH UPR TROUGH ALG CST. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON SAT...AND MAY EVEN BE A BIT LOWER IN SOME VLYS TODAY AS MARINE INFLUENCE IS NOW WELL ESTABLISHED. AFTER TODAY...ALL MDLS SHOWING GRADUAL HGT RISES AS UPR RDG ACRS S CNTRL U.S. BLDS WWD AND UPR TROUGH ALG W CST RETREATS SLGTLY TONIGHT AND MON. AS HGTS BUILD...MARINE LYR DEPTH WILL BEGIN TO DECRS...ESPECIALLY IF EDDY CRCLN IS WKR TONIGHT AS INDICATED BY 03Z ETA. THE MARINE INVERSION MAY LOWER ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST VLY LOCATIONS CLR TONIGHT...WITH SOME DECENT WARMING FOR THE VLYS ON MON. AT THIS TIME...WL BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE WITH WARMING AND REDUCTION OF LOW CLDS...SINCE THE INVERSION WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME LOWERING TODAY WITH THE EDDY CRCLN... AND TYPICALLY REQUIRES MORE THAN A SLGT RISE IN HGTS FOR IT TO LOWER DURG THE NIGHT. WL COMPROMISE AND GO WITH SOME LESSENING OF LOW CLDS IN VLYS...AND ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGS OF WARMING IN MOST VLY AREAS MON. CSTL AREAS MAY WARM A BIT AS WELL AS ONSHR FLOW BEGINS TO DCRS... AND FASTER CLRG IS XPCTD MON.

BLV MODELS ARE TOO FAR W WITH MID AND UPR LVL MSTR THROUGH MON...AND XCPT BULK OF IT TO REMAIN ACRS AZ AND BAJA. BY TUE...UPR LVL FLOW MAY BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR PUSHING SOME MSTR INTO SRN AND ERN CA... BUT LINGERING UPR TROUGH JUST OF CST SHOULD KEEP THREAT OF CONVECTION LIMITED TO SRN AND ERN MTNS AND DSRTS. AFTER THAT...UPR TROUGH ALG W CST WL DEEPEN A BIT AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE CST...KEEPING MONSOONAL MSTR TO THE E OF CA. WARMING WILL CONT ACRS THE FCST AREA ON TUE... THEN XPCT COOLING TO BEGIN WED AND THU.

LAX 000. BRUNO

.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFLAX.