AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
AFDCAE 1050 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 1999
FCST QUESTION IS WHETHER POP WARRANTED FOR THIS AFT. MID LEVEL CAP
EVIDENT ON 12Z GSO/MHX SOUNDINGS (FFC/CHS SOUNDINGS NOT AVBL)...CAE GOES
DERIVED SOUNDINGS AND ON CAE ACARS SOUNDING. WEAK NVA AND UPPER
CONVERGENT FLOW ALSO APPARENT ON VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...MODELS AND
SOUNDING MANIPULATION WITH SHARP PROGRAM INDICATE THAT DIURNAL HEATING
AND ANY SFC CONVERGENCE COULD BARELY BREAK CAP...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
VALUES AND DRY AIR ALOFT. LATEST LAPS INDICATES SOME SFC CONV...ALTHOUGH
VERY WEAK FLOW. 12Z RUC INDICATES SOME SFC MOIST CONV AND SOME PCPN FOR
THIS AFT. GIVEN SUMMER CLIMO AND GIVEN AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG TSRA...WOULDNT HURT TO THROW IN SMALL (20) POP. SOUNDING
INDICATIONS...PLUS TEMP TRENDS THIS MORNING BEING IN LINE WITH LAMP
GUIDANCE...SHOW MAX TEMP FCST IN THE MID 90S STILL LOOKS FINE. APPEARS
TDS WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINAL HEAT INDEX VALUES... SO WILL CONTINUE HEAT
ADVISORY.
.CAE...HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON
SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>31-035>038-041
GAZ040-063>065-077.
MILLER