Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 01/09/00

GUSTY WINDS MAIN STORY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM. HAVE HAD WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH REPORTED AT A FEW AUTOMATED WIND STATIONS. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CANYON WINDS TONIGHT FOR COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...SO COULD SEE ANOTHER REPEAT WIND ADVISORY EPISODE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

DIRTY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY...SO LOOK FOR VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE AT TIMES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

EXTENDED PICTURE STILL SHOWING BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL COAST...BUT MODEL RUNS KEEP LOOKING LESS LIKELY WITH EVERY RUN. FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD.

LAX 0000. GOMBERG.

.LAX...GALE WARNING/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SEE LAXCWFLAX. WIND ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWLAX.

DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER THE GLFAK WL DOMINATE WEST COAST WX THRU THE NEXT WEEK. STG JET CIRCULATING ARND LOW HAS 165KT WLY JET POINTED AT PACNW ATTM...PUSHING CURRENT SYS NR CST INLD. AS LOW DRIFTS SE TO NR QN CHARLOTTES BY MON AFTN...NXT SYS DUE MON SHOULD AFFECT OREGON MORE THAN WA.

IN SHORT TERM...00Z AVN/ETA LOOK GOOD IN HANDLING SYS CURRENTLY APCHG WA CST. XPCT FROPA CST ABT 13Z AND PGTSND 15Z OR SO. PER ACARS DATA FRZLVL IN PGTSND CURRENTLY ABT 2KFT...AND ABT MIDNIGHT WE HAD BEEN GETTING SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOW...OR SNOW/RAIN MIXED...DOWN TO ABT 400FT...AND DOWN TO 250FT IN SPOTS ALG HOOD CANAL. XPCT WARM ADVECTION FM SYS TO PUSH SNOW LEVEL BACK UP TO 2500 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO 500 TO 1000 FT BY LATE AFTN. XPCT MTN SNOW TO CONT BHND FNT TODAY WITH W30-35KT 850MB WNDS THRU THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD BGN DCRSG BY MIDNIGHT. WL FRESHEN HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR MTNS THRU TODAY...WITH PSBL DOWNGRADE TO ADVISORY THIS EVENING.

MDLS GENLY IN TUNE WITH NXT SYS COMING IN EARLY MON...SENDING BULK OF WARM ADVECTION DOWN INTO OREGON. FASTER AVN PREFERRED OVER ETA...BUT AGREE WITH ETA SHOWING MUCH WKR DYNAMICS OVR W WA. XPCT OCFNT FROPA W WA ARND MIDDAY.

IN EXTENDED...MRF/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA. W WA IS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE JET TUE/WED WITH 850MB TEMPS -6C TO -8C. DEFINITELY A SHOWERY REGIME...BUT AVN/MRF SHOW WK SFC TROFS MOVG INTO W WA EACH DAY. WL NEED TO MENTION SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN HIR HILLS. THU IS BIGGER QUESTION...ALL MDLS SHOW BRIEF ELY SFC FLOW EARLY THU FOR SOME DRYG ALG WITH -7C 850MB TEMPS...THEN A WARM ADVECTION SYS APCHG MIDDAY...WETBULB EFFECT SNOW IS PSBL. MAJOR TRICKY PROBLEM...WL MENTION RAIN DVLPG WITH BRIEF SNOW PSBL EARLY. KAM

UIL +++ SEA ++9 OLM ++9

.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL .SEW...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS EXCEPT PGTSND/HOOD CANAL HEAVY SURF ADVY COAST SCA PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR OLYMPICS/CASCDS THRU SUNDAY

AT PRESENT RMNS OF PGTSND CONV ZONE MOVG N AS WLY GRADIENTS THRU THE STRAIT WKN AND SELY GRADS KICK IN. AT LEAST 165KT ZONAL JET ACRS 50N PLOWING INTO WA/OR CST WITH SEVERAL WAVES EMBEDDED IN FLOW. NO ACARS DATA IN AREA FOR COMPARISON...YET BELIEVE FIRST 12 HRS OF NEW 00Z AVN TO BE ALMOST 6 HRS TOO SLOW PER SFC PRES GRADIENTS AND OVERRUNING PCPN OVR MOST OF WRN WA AT 03Z. THUS SUSPECT ENTIRE PACKAGE (ALL MDLS - ESPECIALLY ETA) MAY BE TOO SLOW INTO XTNDD. AS AVN TRICKLES IN ALREADY SEE THAT IT IS 6 TO 12 HRS FASTER THAN 12Z RUN...THUS WILL SPEED UP TIMING OF EVERYTHING THROUGHOUT ALL ZONES ACCORDINGLY. STG WLY FLOW BHD NEXT WAVE DROPPING HEAVY MTN SNOWS SUN TIL NEXT SYS ARRIVES SUN NIGHT/MON. SFC FLOW BCMG WKLY OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT AND MON AHD OF NEXT WAVE IN JET. JET DIPS A COUPLE DEGREES FARTHER S THUS MAIN MOISTURE FIELD TARGETED FOR OR. THINGS GET TRICKY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WITH -8C 85H TEMPS ACRS REGION...E SFC FLOW...ELY 85H FLOW AND OVERRUNNING PCPN INCHING NWD. NEW AVN TAKING SFC LOW S PGTSND. HOWEVER GIVEN HOW FAST EVERYTHING IS MOVING NOT SURE THAT COLD AIR WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO SET UP TO GET SUCKED INTO AREA. MOS GUIDANCE OFF NGM DELIGHTFUL WITH 35-55% SNOW POPS BGNG 06Z MON. WILL DELICATELY ADD A MENTION OF MIXED PCPN TO NRN ZONES BGNG SUN NIGHT AND MON TO PROVIDE FLEXIBILITY AS SYS FURTHER DEVELOPS. .XTNDD...POSN OF DEEP TROF OVR ERN PACIFIC CONSISTENT THROUGH 156 HRS OF ECM/UK/MRF. HOWEVER UPSTREAM SPLIT IN FLOW INCREASING CHAOS BYD THAT. MOST CONFIDENT IN SHORT TERM WITH STG ZONAL FLOW FINALLY BUCKLING TUE AS COLD AIR SOURCE GETS CUT OFF FARTHER UPSTREAM. THIS HELPS TO AMPLIFY TROF WITH SWLY FLOW OVR AREA MID WEEK. TIL THEN... CANNOT JUSTIFY DEVIATION FROM A WET AND WINDY PROGNOSIS. QUERCIAGROSSA.

UIL ++++ SEA +++9 OLM +++9

.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL .SEW...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS EXCEPT PGTSND/HOOD CANAL HEAVY SURF ADVY COAST SCA PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR OLYMPICS/CASCDS THRU SUNDAY