NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER COLORADO
AFDDEN 235 PM MST MON JAN 10 2000
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS LETTING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. IR SATELLITE
PICS INDICATES SOME DRYING IN NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO...BUT ANOTHER BATCH HEADED FOR THE STATE IN NORTHERN NEVADA
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL
LOWER LAPSE RATES AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SNOW MODEL YIELDING
ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE OVERDONE A TAD CONSIDERING
SOME WARM ADVECTION. STILL ENOUGH SNOW AND ESPECIALLY WIND TO KEEP
HIGHLIGHTS GOING AT LEAST FOR THIS EVENING.
WINDS HAVE DECREASED FOR THE TIME BEING AS STRONG SURGE HAS PUSHED
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS. LEE TROF
APPEARS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY LATE TONIGHT SO DOWNSLOPE WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH WIND THREAT LOOKS TO BE
SHAPING UP AGAIN IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS STABILITY
STRUCTURE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
CSI RELATED SNOW BROKE OUT ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
AFFECTED AREAS HAS REMAINED PRETTY SMALL WITH BANDED NATURE. RUC
CONTINUES TO INDICATE CSI ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED.
THUS...WILL ONLY HAVE SCATTERED POPS.
BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM DISCUSSION: SATELLITE PICS SHOWING STRONG UPR LVL JET
NOSING INTO CO...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SHOWING JET LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WITH WK RIDGING AND WAA PATTERN TO CLICK ON IN ERNEST ON
TUE. THIS CONFIRMED BY UPSTREAM ACARS DATA OVER PAC NW COAST AND
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS ALSO SHOWING WAA PATTERN FOR TUE. PRESS
FALLS WILL BEGIN LATER TNT EAST OF MTNS AND FLOW PATTERN BACKING
MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. MORE HI WINDS TO CONTEND WITH AGAIN FOR
MTNS/FOOTHILLS/ADJ PLAIN AREAS LATE TNT AND TUE AS STABILITY AND
SHEAR CHARACTERISTICS IMPROVE TOWARDS 12Z FOR MORE MTN WAVE
CONDITIONS. 700MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-60KT RANGE AND WITH
SO-SO PROFILE FOR MTN WAVE CONDITIONS EXPECT AT LEAST A HI WIND
WATCH IS NEEDED FOR LATE TNT AND TUE. FURTHER EAST ON THE
PLAINS...STRENGTHENING GRADIENT BUT MOST WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH
RANGE SHOULD SUFFICE. WARMING TREND FOR THE PLAINS NEXT TWO DAYS
WITH READINGS WARMING UP INTO THE 50S.
AS FOR THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MTNS...BUT INTENSITIES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LESSENED AS LAPSE RATES
LOWER TO 5-6C/KM AND JET DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...STRONG
OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP SOME ACCUM GOING. NO NEED TO ISSUE HILITES FOR
TUE AT THIS POINT...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED.
LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...A SCREAMING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THRU THU...THEN MORE RIDGING WITH A RETURN TO A SW FLOW ALF
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVR ERN PAC. MTNS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT
SOME FOR THE EXTENDED PRD. ENTREKIN
.DEN...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ZONES 33 AND 34.
...HIGH WIND WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND TUE FOR THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...ZONES 35 AND 36...AND ADJ AREAS OF FOOTHILLS
38>40 FOR TUE.
...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
ZONES 30..32..35..AND 37.