Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 01/28/00

...SYNOPSIS... THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOCAL NIGHT AND MORNING CANYON WINDS. FOR THE WEEKEND...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

...DISCUSSION... IN THE SHORT-TERM...NGM/ECMWF A LTL SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVR THE PAC NW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PREFERRED OVR THE WKR ETA/AVN. LOCALLY GUSTY NLY/NELY WINDS WL OCCUR THIS MORNING THRU AND BLO PASSES AND CANYONS...BUT BLO ADV LVLS. AS THE PAC NW SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...NELY SFC GRADIENTS AND ASSOCD WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF...THEN REBUILD LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ON TO THE E INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. OFSHR WINDS FOR FRI MORNING SHOULD BE A LTL STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING...BUT STILL BLO ADV LVLS. WK CSTL EDDY EVIDENT IN SFC OBS THIS MORNING AND WELL CAPTURED BY BOTH THE RUC AND COAMPS. HOWEVER...WITH ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING LTL IN THE WAY OF A MARINE INVERSION AS A RESULT OF COOLING ALF THE PAST 24 HOURS.. ANY CSTL STRATUS SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VLYS. OFSHR GRADIENTS TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...SHOULD KP ANY STRATUS TONIGHT OFF THE CST.

EXTENDED...NEW AVN/MRF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF ENERGY FM A FAST NRLY ZONAL JET OVR WRN AND CNTRL PAC BEGINNING TO DIVERT INTO THE SRN STREAM TOWARD CA AS A BLOCK DEVELOPS OVR THE CNTRL U.S. NW THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS COULD BRING RAIN/SNOW BACK TO NRN AND CNTRL CA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT PROBABLY ONLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF SRN CA. ECMWF/AVN/MRF ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING A WK UPR LOW INTO SRN CA SAT. THIS SHOULD SPREAD MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ACROSS SW CA...BUT WITH OFSHR LOW LVL GRADIENTS...SUSPECT THAT LOW LVL MSTR AND AND PRECIPITATION WL BE ABSENT...A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT MOST.

SAN 000

.SAN...NONE.

MARTIN

MDLS PREDICTABLY HANGING ON TO RIDGE OVR NWRN U.S. INTO SUN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN ETA/NGM/AVN AND CANADIAN WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES THRU 48 HRS. ACARS HAS 195KT JET NR 45N/180W WHICH IS 15% STRONGER THAN MDLS. HOWEVER COLD AIR SUPPORT WANES DURING NXT 24 HRS THAT WILL WEAKEN AND STRETCH JET WITH SUBSEQUENT BUCKLING TO SPLIT THE FLOW. EVOLVING SPLIT SENDING CRUX OF ENERGY S INTO NRN CA/OR AND WITH THE WEAKER NRN BRANCH INTO CENTRAL B.C. .SHORT TERM...PREFER CANADIAN/ETA MDLS PER INITIALIZATION. BOTH INCRSG ELY SFC AND 85H FLOW WITH DEEPER COLD AIR ERN WA. THAT COUPLED WITH 5-7C WARMING AT 85H LIFTS INVERSION TO ABV CASCD PASSES TO CREATE FLOW REVERSAL W OF CASCD CREST TODAY. THUS WILL ADD LCL GUSTY WINDS TO FOOTHILLS. SHOULD LEAD TO QUICKER BURNOFF OF FOG AS WELL. TEMPS REASONABLE YET WILL INCREASE RANGE WITH COOLER NIGHTS AND WARMER DAYS PER INCRG 85H FLOW SAT/SUN. GREAT CYCLING WEEKEND! .XTNDD... RESTRAINING SNOW BIASES...HOWEVER MDLS ARE BEGINNING TO PROVIDE HOPE AFTER MID WK. SPLIT FLOW ALG CST FURTHER DELAYING PCPN AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF SAGS INLAND MON. PREFER SLOWER/DRIER CANADIAN MDL TIL THEN AS IT RETAINS STRONGER RIDGE OVR WA INTO SUN WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH TREND OF OTHER MDLS PAST 3 DAYS. INITIAL SFC LOW WITH TROF GOING N AS SECONDARY LOW UPSTREAM GAINING MOMENTUM WITH JET. UNCERTAIN OF LATITUDE WITH TUE MORNING LOW PER MDL COMPARISONS. SLIGHT TWEAK OF JET BY A DEGREE COULD RESULT IN IDEAL SNOW PATH LOW FOR WRN WA - OR - JUST MORE LIQUID. THUS WILL KEEP FCST AN EITHER/OR GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTIES. ANOTHER FACTOR TO SUPPORT MORE LIQUID IS THE TRAJECTORY OVER WATER AND POTENTIAL MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS TIL THEN. MDLS NOTORIOUSLY ERRORING THAT WAY. HOWEVER... SNOW LOVERS... THE PATTERN BECOMES HOPEFUL AFTER MID WEEK. QUERCIAGROSSA.

UIL 000 SEA 000 OLM 000

.KATX...VCP31/CSR31...OPERATIONAL

.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY W ENTRANCE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...