NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER COLORADO
AFDDEN 350 AM MST SUN JAN 30 2000
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER UNDER SOME STRATUS...BUT LITTLE FOG AROUND AS BEST AS I CAN
TELL. THE COLD BLOTCH IS SHOWING UP AGAIN OVER SOUTH PARK THIS
MORNING ON THE IR SATELLITE PICTURES. THE FEW READINGS FROM THAT
AREA INDICATE TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 20 F. PROFILERS ARE SHOWING
30-35 KNOT WINDS ALL THE WAY UP. MODELS KEEP THE JET LEVEL FLOW
WEAK AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. BENIGN SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING PROGGED THROUGH THE DAY...MOSTLY VERY WEAK DOWNWARD.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST OF COLORADO BY 00Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS ON THE SATELLITE PICTURES AND
MODELS MOISTURE GRIDS SHOW "SUNNY"S THROUGHOUT THE ZONES TODAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR US TODAY...
SO NORMAL DIURNAL WIND REGIMES WILL PREVAIL. TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS
GRIDS SHOW A 1 TO 2 C WARM UP TODAY FOR HIGHS...JUST A SLIGHT
MODERATION TO THE CURRENT AIRMASS. RJK
LONG TERM DISCUSSION: THE MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
INITIALIZATION ON THE STORM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THANKS TO
AIRCRAFT RECONAISSANCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...ONLY A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE
ETA/NGM BOTH HAVE A BETTER GRASP OF THE VORTICITY STRUCTURE EVOLVING
AT 48 HOURS WITH A BIT OF A COMMA STARTING TO DEVELOP. THIS MIGHT
SUGGEST MORE LIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OUR AREA
IS STILL ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE STORM AT BEST. IF THE AVN IS
RIGHT IT MAY STAY CLEAR ACROSS NERN CO. WITH A WAYS TO GO BEFORE WE
GET THERE...I WILL BACK OFF A BIT BUT KEEP SOME POPS WITH MON NIGHT
THE BEST CHANCE. AS FOR THE END OF WEEK SYSTEM...MODELS LOOK
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MRF HAS A NICE SNOWSTORM FOR US...SOME OF THE
OTHERS HAVE A DEEPER STRONGER TROUGH. GIVEN THE STRONG POSSIBILITY
OF A SLOWER STRONG SYSTEM...WE MIGHT BE BRINGING THE SNOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS TOO EARLY. FOR NOW ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS.
THERE IS NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ANYWHERE AND THE PLAINS STAY
IN COOL AIR THROUGHOUT...SO I WILL TONE DOWN THE TEMPERATURE CHANGES
IN THE ZONES. GIMMESTAD
.DEN...NONE.