EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
AFDSAN 330 AM PST MON JAN 31 2000
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TODAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS
MORNING WITH WARMING AND DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MOVES INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE
PROGESSION OF STORMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SURF TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEACHES TODAY AND TUESDAY.
...DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FM LAST NIGHT ON TRACK AND VERIFYING NICELY WITH EXCEPTION
OF SNOW LVLS. WK SFC CDFNT MOVD ACROSS SW CA LATE SUN EVENING WITH
SCT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALG AND W OF THE MTNS AS RESIDUAL LOW LVL
MSTR IS LIFTED OROGRAPHICALLY. AT 3 AM...BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FM
THE SBD MTNS SWWD ALG THE SAN CST...THEN OFSHR. THIS BAND SHOULD
EXIT SW CA BY DAYBREAK. FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LOW LVL CLOUD BAND FM VTU
COUNTY SWWD ENHANCING. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO
LCLLY MDT SHOWERS FOR SW CA THIS MORNING REACHING NRN SXNS BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND EXITING SRN SXNS MID MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MDLS LAST NIGHT WERE TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN LWRG SNOW LVLS. SNOW LVLS REMAIN AOA 7000 FT AND ACARS
SOUNDINGS DURG THE PAST 6 HOURS SUGGEST SNOW LVLS MAY HAVE ALREADY
DECRD ABOUT AS MUCH AS IS GOING TO OCCUR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MDL FORECASTS OF SLOWLY RISING THICKNESSES TODAY. WL KP SNOW LVLS OF
6500 TO 7000 FT IN CURRENT PACKAGE...BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ANY
OFSHR FLOW FOR TUE MORNING SHOULD BE EXCEEDINGLY WK AS PROGRESSION
OF PAC SYSTEMS INLAND TO THE N OF SRN CA SHOULD KP INTERIOR SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVR THE GREAT BASIN MINIMAL.
EXTENDED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE WORDING IN THE CURRENT
PACKAGE. CURRENT TIMING LOOKS OKAY GIVEN CURRENT RANGE OF MDL
SOLUTIONS. MAIN IMPACT OF SYS FOR WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS TO BE TO THE N OF SW CA...BUT RANGE OF MDL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THAT THIS MIDWEEK SYS COULD BE A LTL WETTER AND COLDER FOR SW CA
THAN THE CURRENT SYS AND THE SYS LAST TUE/WED.
CSTL WTRS...HVY SURF ADV ON TRACK. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW INCR IN
W-NW SWELL HAS REACHED CNTRL CA CST BUOYS AS FAR S AS POINT
CONCEPTION WITH SWELL INCRG ABOUT 1 FT PER HOUR FOR THE LAST 6
HOURS. THIS INCR IN SWELL SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE SRN CA CSTL WTRS
THIS MORNING AND REACH THE SRN CA CST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURF INCRG
TO HVY SURF LVLS. SURF SHOULD PK TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TUE AND WED.
SAN 600
.SAN...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY (LAXMWSSAN).
MARTIN