EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
AFDSAN 330 AM PST TUE FEB 1 2000
...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY
OR EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG THE COAST...HEAVY SURF WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
TODAY...THEN REBUILD ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
...DISCUSSION...
LESS TRANQUIL PATTERN POSSIBLE FOR SW CA FM THU INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM
FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND WED AS SHORTWAVE RDGG ALF AND WK SFC OFSHR
FLOW FOR CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER. UPR SUPPORT FOR OFSHR WINDS
TODAY IS DECENT...BUT SUCH SUPPORT EXTENDS ONLY WKLY TO THE SFC.
ACARS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AOA 50KT FM 700 MB ON
UP...BUT IN LOWEST 4000 FT OR SO WINDS ONLY UP TO 25 KT. HENCE WK
NELY FLOW PATTERN TODAY AND WITH CENTER OF INTERIOR SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING S DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WK ELY FLOW PATTERN
FOR WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN THE CSTL AND VLY ZONES TO
RECOVER TO NR NORMAL TODAY AND ABOVE NORMAL WED WITH TEMPERATURES IN
SOME INLAND CSTL AND VLY LOCATIONS NRG 80 WED AFTERNOON.
WITH HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK DEVELOPING ALG THE W CST OF NOAM LATER IN
THE WEEK...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WL RETURN WITH SRN CA VULNERABLE TO
SRN STREAM SYSTEMS EVERY TWO DAYS OR SO. THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THU...A SECOND ON SAT...AND A THIRD EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE ONE ALWAYS HAS BE TO CONCERNED ABOUT THESE SYSTEMS
CLOSING OFF AND REMAINING OFF THE CST...OR DROPPING WELL S AND MOVG
INLAND TO THE S OF SRN CA ACROSS NRN BAJA...THESE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO
REMAIN WITHIN THE WLYS...AT LEAST THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF UPSTREAM KICKERS. THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR
THE SYSTEMS BEING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE (I.E. ...EVEN IF
THEY SLOW AND WEAKEN SOME WHILE APPROACHING THE CST... THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVG E AND INLAND). THE OTHER CAVEAT IS THAT IN SUCH SPLIT
FLOW PATTERNS ALG THE W CST WITH A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK AND WITH SRN
STREAM SYSTEMS MOVG INTO THE SW...THE TIMING...TRACK...AND IMPACTS
OF SUCH SYSTEMS MOVG E TOWARD CA IS OFTEN NO BETTER HANDLED BY THE
MDLS IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS THAN 2 TO 3 DAYS OUT. HENCE...GETTING THE
DETAILS RIGHT ON EACH SYS IS LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT EVEN IN THE
SHORT TERM.
CSTL WTRS...SURF SHOULD DROP OFF SOME TODAY AND WED AS SWELL
DEVELOPS A NWLY RATHER THAN WLY COMPONENT (GREATER BLOCKING BY OFSHR
ISLANDS). HOWEVER...BY THU...HEAVY SURF SHOULD RETURN TO SW CA
BEACHES AS THE PROGRESSION OF LOW LATITUDE STORMS ACROSS THE PAC WL
BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF WLY SWELL. THIS PD OF HEAVY SURF RETURNING
THU WL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SURF GREATER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED MON IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PD.
SAN 000
.SAN...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY (LAXMWSSAN).
MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
AFDOKX 945 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2000
SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN/ARCTIC FRONT NOW INTO ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS SEEN
ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THERE/S AN AC DECK OVER THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE LOWER STRATO CU IS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RESULTING DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS.
WOULD EXPECT THE AC DECK TO MOVE EAST BASED ON THE FLOW...BUT
CONTINUITY SHOW THE DECK MOVING AT A SNAILS PACE TO THE EAST. WILL
MAKE LONG ISLAND PARTLY SUNNY WITH THE AC...MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT WILL INLAND WHERE THE STRATO CU AN POSSIBLE FLURRIES ARE
INCLUDED.
TODAY/S TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH FORECAST BASED ON 11Z LAMP AND 00Z
MOS.
WILL ADD BREEZY TO FCST BASED ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ACARS
WINDS SHOWING HIGHER THAN MODEL LOW LEVEL WINDS.
TONIGHT...FRONT WILL QUICKLY BRIDE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 02 AND
05Z. RATHER COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW 25 G 35 KT BY AM. WIND CHILLS OF 0 TO 10 BELOW EXPECTED. COULD
BE SOME FLURRIES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL
NOT ADD AT THIS TIME.
WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY FCST FOR NOW...BUT FEEL WE/RE HIGH ON THE TEMPS.
MARINE...CURRENTLY FCST IS FINE. WILL EXPAND SCA TO INCLUDE NY
HARBOR AS SEEING 25 KT AT AMBROSE. NO WAVE DATA IS AVAILABLE...BUT
DIRECTION DOWN THE SOUND SUGGEST HIGHER SEAS EAST. MAY BE NEAR GALE
EARLY WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE COLD ADVECTION. WILL EVALUATE THIS FOR
NEXT PACKAGE.
.OKX...SCA...ANZ350-353-355-330-335-338.
JST/JG