AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
AFDFWA 330 AM EST THU FEB 10 2000
AT 08Z SFC LOW MOVG ENE OVER ERN KS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE TO
NR AOH. ETA SFC WINDS SUGGEST LOW WL TRACK RIGHT UP WARM FRONT ACRS
OUR SRN FA THIS AFTN/EVE AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON
GOING TRENDS. SHOWERS DVLPG LAST COUPLE OF HRS OVR ERN MO MOVG NE.
MODELS INDICATING GOOD UVM AND INCSG/DEEEPENING MOISTURE THRU THE
DAY SO WL GO WITH CATAGORICAL POPS. 06Z ACARS INTO ORD INDICATES
PRECIP WL START OUT AS ALL RAIN OVR OUR AREA AS INDICATED BY MODELS.
WITH INCRSD MIXING, TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABV FREEZING AT ALL STNS IN FA
XCP DFI AT 08Z, SO IMMINENT FREEZING RAIN THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL. LOW
LVL TEMP ADVCTN LOOKS NEUTRAL ATTM. SHD GET SOME LOW LVL CAA ACRS
NORTHERN ZNS THIS AFTN AS LOW PASSES BY TO THEIR SOUTH AND WINDS GO
NE. HWVR, BASED ON ETA FCST SOUNDINGS AND THKNS SCHEMES, APPEARS WL
REMAIN TOO WARM FOR FREEZING RAIN, SO WL JUST GO WITH RAIN FOR OUR
FA... COORD GRR. WL BE BIG TEMP RANGE TDY WITH FRONT ACRS THE AREA.
FWC LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FM M30S NORTH TO U40S SOUTH.
ETA/AVN STILL INDICATING DECENT UVM AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT 00Z
FRI, SO WL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN CONTG INTO THE EVE.
QUESTIONABLE IF RAIN WILL CHANGE OVR TO FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIP OR
BRIEFLY OR JUST END THIS EVE. ANY CHANGEOVER WUD BE BRIEF, AND GIVEN
DOUBT IF IT WL OCCUR AT ALL WL JUST GO FOR RAIN ENDING.
SHD GET INTO DECENT SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LOW TOMORROW. HWVR, LOW
LVL MOISTURE WL BE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION 3-5K FT. WL START THE
DAY OUT CLOUDY AND TRY TO BREAK IT OUT IN THE PM. TEMPS MARGINAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT, BUT LOW LVL WINDS NNE AND AND LOTS OF BACKING SHEAR UP
TO H7 SO SNOW SHOWER THREAT SEEMS MINIMAL.
DPROG/DT ON LAST 3 RUNS OF AVN SHOWING TENDENCY TO BE SLOWER AND
WEAKER WITH NEXT VORT MAX TO MOVE EWD ACRS SRN PLAINS. LATEST RUN
SHOWING VORT MAX NEAR KMEM AT 12Z SAT WHERE LAST RUN HAD IT NEAR
KEVV. WL SCALE BACK SNOW POPS FOR FRI NGT AND SAT TO CHC. SLGT
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS FOR THOSE PDS BASED ON NEW FAN GUIDANCE, OTRWS
NO CHANGES TO EFP.
.IWX...NONE.
JT