Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 02/12/00




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

AFDGRB 330 PM CST FRI FEB 11 2000

SFC HI OVR MN WL MV E TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BLO NGM AND AVN GUIDANCE
JUST ABT EVERWHERE. AS SFC HI HEADS E WAA RETURNS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WHILE AN UPR SYS MVS THROUGH THE N. THIS SHD BE ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT
SNOWFALL (1-3 INCHES) AS BEST DYNAMICS ARE UP NORTH WHILE STRONGEST WAA
IS IN THE SOUTH. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON LOOKS VERY INTERESTING. THE AVN MODELS DEPICTS THE
STRONG SHORT WAVE ENTERING THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING MVG ACROSS
THE SWRN STATES AND PRODUCING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MVG FROM SRN KS TO
NRN INDIANA BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE A BIG SNOWSTORM FOR THE GRB TO
MKE AREA...BUT THE NCEP PEOPLE THINK THAT THE AVN SOLUTION IS A BIT TOO
AMPLIFIED AND PREFER A FLATTER UPPER PATTERN AND WEAKER SFC LOW FURTHER
SOUTH. THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL IS NOT TOO FAR FROM THE AVN AS FAR AS THE
SFC LOW PATH...BUT IS MUCH WEAKER. ACARS DATA FROM NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST (FROM AN AIRCRAFT FROM HNL TO SFO) SHOWED WINDS 230 AT 100KTS...
WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE AVN FCST. SO WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED YET AS NCEP IS USUALLY VERY GOOD AT PICKING THE
RIGHT MODEL...AND THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO ISSUE ANY
WATCHES/STATEMENTS THAT MIGHT BE JUSTIFIED. WILL JUST SAY SNOW LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WIT A CHANCE OF SNOW
FURTHER NORTH.

.GRB...NONE.

RDM
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

AFDGYX 946 AM EST SAT FEB 12 2000

NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXISTING ZNS.

VIS SATL LOOP SHOWS NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLDS...AND WUD EXPECT LTL
IN THE WAY OF CLDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WHERE THE FLAGGING LAPSE
RATE MAY SUPPORT A FEW CU.

WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN AT THE SFC...AND THE BEST GRAD TRANSLATING
EWD...WUD EXPECT WINDS TO CONT TO DIMINISH.  THE 12/12Z GYX RAOB...
AS WELL AS THE KMHT AND KPWM ACARS OBS...SHOW THAT THE INVERSION
REACHES TO ABT 3 KFT...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTINESS ERN ZNS FOR
THE EARLY AFTN.

MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE ON TARGET...AND MOST ZNS MAY END UP REACHING
THE HI END OF THE RANGES (SINCE FULL SUN TEMPS MOST PLACES ARE IN
THE MU20S).

NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FCST.

ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS IN ALMOST ALL AREAS BLO SCA...AND WL
PROBABLY TAKE ALL FLAGS DOWN WITH THIS PACKAGE.

PRELIM WRKZFP/WRKCWF AVBL AS WRK FILES AND ADMS.  AS ALWAYS...
COMMENTS/OPINIONS WELCOME.

.GYX...NONE.

HAYES