NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER COLORADO
AFDDEN 355 AM MST MON FEB 14 2000
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: WINDY AND WARMER WOULD NICELY DESCRIBE FIRST
PD WX. STG NWLY FLOW OVR STATE ATTM AS CNTRL RCKY MTN RGN IS BTWN A
LONG WV TROF OVR THE MS VLY AND A MID-LVL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVR THE
GREAT BASIN AND NRN RCKYS. DEEP NWLY FLOW CURRENTLY OVR CWA WITH
120KT MAX WNDS NR 250MBS AS ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC-2 AND ACARS
SNDGS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LAYER OF MDT STATIC STABILITY BTWN
500-450 MBS...A BIT HIGH TO HV MUCH INFLUENCE OF MTN WV FORMATION.
BELOW STABLE LYR...CROSS BARRIER WNDS WERE FM 310-330 DEGS AT
40-50KT. STG RIDGETOP WINDS SHOWING UP ON RADAR REFLECTIVITY AS
"BRIGHT" ECHOS ALONG CREST OF FNT RNG. FTHL RAWS AND LDAD OB
SITES...INCLUDING AUTOMATED SITE ON NIMOT RIDGE (NR 11 THSND FT)
INDICATING PRETTY STG AND GUSTY WLY WNDS PAST FEW HRS...I.E. A GUST
OF 37 KTS AT THE RED FEATURE LKS RAWS SITE JUST AFT MIDNIGHT...AND A
GUST NR 50 KTS AT THE NIWOT RDG SITE LAST HR. WITH LTL CHG IN THE
PRESENT HT AND WND PATTERN SHOULD SEE GUSTY WLY WNDS ALL DAY IN THE
MTNS AND FTHLS. GUSTY W-SWLY WNDS WL LKLY MIX DOWN TO THE ADJCNT
PLAINS AFT WK SFC BASED INVERSION BREAKS...SOMETIME AFT 17Z. SHOULD
SEE GUSTY SWLY WNDS AS FAR E AS LIMON WHERE WINDS WILL WARM TEMPS TO
NR 60 THIS AFTN. AS FOR SNOWFALL IN THE MTNS...SEE LTL BREAK IN THE
FLOW OF PAC MSTR INTO THE STATE...AND WITH WHO KNOWS HOW MANY WK
SHRTWVS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SEE NO REASON TO GO WITH LET THAN
SCTD SNOW SHWRS IN THE MTNS...MAINLY ALG AND W OF CONT DVD.
STG/GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN
THE COUNTRY...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS DO NOT SEE BLOWING SNOW BEING AS
MUCH OF A PROBLEM TODAY. WENT A TAD HIGHER THAN MOS TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSLOPE WARMING. BAKER
LONG TERM DISCUSSION: EACH OF THE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
ACRS CO THRU 48 HRS WITH MOD WLY FLOW AT MID LVLS AND THE UPR LVL
JET IN THE VICINITY. LOW LVL MSTR WL BE TRAPPED IN THE MTNS TO KEEP
THE CHANCE OF SNOW GOING IN THOSE ZONES. OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL
SHOWS ONLY 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN ZNS 33 AND 34 TONITE...PRIMARILY
DUE TO AN INPUT WIND OF 40 KTS. PLAINS ZNS SHOULD CONT TO SEE MILD
TEMPS AND DRY CONDS ON TUES CAUSED BY CONTG DOWNSLP WLY FLOW.
THE MOD TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT MAY CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALG THE ERN
FTHL SLOPES TONIGHT...BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW AND THE POSN
OF THE UPR JET IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A DAMAGING WIND SITN. WL JUST
MENTION GUSTY WINDS IN THE FTHLS AND MTN ZNS FOR NOW AND LET LATER
SHIFTS KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLVING WIND SITN.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LUKS LIKE A LITTLE DIFFERENT PICTURE AS
THE AVN AND MRF BRING THE WRN U.S. TROF INTO THE INTERMTN REGION.
AT 66 AND 72 HRS THE AVN REALLY INCREASES THE MSTR OVR THE STATE.
THE CURRENT FCST ALRDY HAS A CHANCE OF SNOW ACRS THE FCST AREA...SO
NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. KDRBY
.DEN...NONE.