Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 02/15/00

CIRCULATION CNTR AND SFC LOW NOW APPEARS TE BE IN NE OREGON PER STLT LOOPS. GRADS SHIFTG RPDLY ONSHR AND WL BCM SLY OVR WRN WA THIS EVE. BANDS OF PCPN ON W SIDE GENLY S AND CNTRL PART PER IR STLT AND KATX RADAR. PCPN BANDS NOT MOVG MUCH TO N WL STAY OVRNGT LYING OVR CNTRL AND S PART OF NRN CASCS WEST SLOPES. WITH 850 MB FLOW NOW SHIFTG TO W-SW WL HAVE ADDED UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR GOOD SNOWS IN CASCDS TNGT SO HAVE INDCD A SNOW ADVSY THERE THRU TNGT. ALSO NOTED ON KATX 88D THAT THE MELTING BAND SEEMS TO BE ARND 1200 TO 1500 FEET AND THIS COINCIDES WITH ACARS PIREPS OUT OF SEA WHICH ARE ISOTHERMAL DOWN FM FZLVL ARND 4 THSD FT. THUS WL PUT SNOW LVL IN CNTRL CASCDS NR THAT LEVEL. VSB STLT PICS SHOW CLEARING OFSHR AND WITH UPR TROF MOVG IN OVRNGT WL TAPER PCPN OFF AND BRING IN SOME PARTLY SUNNY PERIODS FOR WRN WA TUE. WL HOLD ONTO SCT SHWRS THRU EARLY WED TIL NXT S/WV DIGG FM NRN BRANCH MOVES THRU. .EXTNDD...MRF CONTS TO SHOW A FAIRLY DRY PD FOR SUNSHINE AT TIMES AS NRN BRANCH DOMINATES PUTTING WRN WA IN NWLY DRIER FLOW. TEMPS A LTL BLO NORMAL. ART UIL 3444 SEA 8533 OLM 8533

.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.

.SEW...SCA COAST FOR HVY SWELL...ADMIRALTY INLET AND PGTSND/HOODCANAL. SNOW ADVSY FOR CASCDS

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: 88-D SHOWING ECHOES OVR MTNS DECREASING ATTM AS ONE WAVE MOVES OUT. WILL LET SNOW ADVISORY EXPIRE WITH AFTN PACKAGE. HOWEVER...FURTHER MSTR UPSTREAM WITH WK WAVES TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...BUT QUITE A BIT OF BREAKS OF "DRYNESS" INBETWEEN SYSTEMS. WILL NOT GO WITH ANY SNOW HILITES TNT...BUT SOME LIGHT ACCUM OF 2-4 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE. NOW FOR THE WINDS. NR HI WND CRITERIA IN AND ALONG FOOTHILLS ATTM WITH GUSTS IN THE 60 MPH RANGE AT MESA LAB IN BOU AND ROCKY FLATS. QUICK LOOK AT PLATTEVILLE INDICATED WINDS AT MTN TOP HAVE DECREASED BY 10-20KT...WHILE ACARS SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM SHOWED WINDS SHIFTING SW WITH HIR SHEAR AND LESS MTN TOP STABILITY. HENCE...WILL KEEP STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVR HIR ZONES BUT NO WARNINGS. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WINDS/SNOWS CLOSELY IN THE MTNS TNT AS SITUATION IS BORDERLINE ON WIND AND SNOW HIGHLIGHTS. ENTREKIN

LONG TERM DISCUSSION: SOME LINGERING SNOW (1-3 INCHES) EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVE JUST BRUSHES THE STATE. WINDY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS AS WELL WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE AND 35-40 KT MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW. HOWEVER...STABILITY PROFILE DOES NOT LOOK GOOD ENOUGH FOR ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ON THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR A PUSH OF UPSLOPE FLOW INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. QUESTION IS IF UPSLOPE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH AND/OR ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. LOOKS LIKE DYNAMICS WILL COME IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130 KT UPPER JET. WITH MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HEART OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UPSLOPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME LOW (20-30) OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE BEST LIFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE COLD DOME.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL INDICATE TROF PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE DIFFERENT. NOGAPS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND STRONGER THAN MRF...WHICH IS UNUSUAL AND SOMETHING TO NOTE. HOWEVER...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCIES HAVE BEEN PRETTY LOW ON ALL MODELS...SO A "CHANCE" OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. LATEST AVN ALSO INDICATED AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WHICH DOES NOT HELP SNOWFALL EITHER. RIDGING AND DRIER SATURDAY.

BARJENBRUCH

.DEN...NONE.