EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
AFDSAN 730 PM PST THU FEB 17 2000
...SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOCAL FOG LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
STORM ON MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE SUNNY SIDE. SURF WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN ON SATURDAY. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW WITH TIDES OF 7
FEET PLUS THROUGH SATURDAY.
...DISCUSSION...
00Z NKX SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700 MBS
AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWING UP ON THE RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS. SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWS DRYING MOST LEVELS COMPARED WITH 24 HOURS AGO. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE WEAK ONSHORE TO THE NORTH...BUT TRENDING ONSHORE AND
ONSHORE TO THE SOUTHERN DESERTS.
00Z GUIDANCE IS JUST COMING IN AND APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE
EARLIER MODELS IN DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA BUT THE
LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY UNDER AN OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
CWFA DRY ON FRIDAY WITH ANY CHANCE OF PCPN BEING LATE IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
WILL DO AN UPDATE OF THE ZONES TO CLEAN UP THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR
THE DESERT AREAS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE.
SAN 0002
.SAN...MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTS
THROUGH SAT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SURF SAT...SEE LAXMWSSAN.
HORTON