Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 02/26/00




NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

AFDPQR 230 PM PST FRI FEB 25 2000

STRONG WESTERLY JET SEEN IN WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPER HEADING
RIGHT INTO WESTERN OREGON. AVN LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AT SURFACE. SHIP
REPORTING 56KT AT 19Z IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP DRYING AS LOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT LOW TO
DEEPEN A BIT MORE THAN AVN IS FORECASTING AND THIS SHOULD BE QUITE A
STRONG SYSTEM. RAIN HAS SPREAD INLAND AS FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES COAST. EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. EASTERLY SURFACE
GRADIENTS INLAND KEEPING THE FREEZING LEVEL DOWN. AT 20Z AIRCRAFT
SOUNDING OUT OF PDX SHOWED FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
WITH A SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH WA AND NORTH OREGON
CASCADES. TEMPERATURES INLAND REMAIN COOL BUT HAVE WARMED ALONG THE
COAST WHERE SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED. WILL GO WITH AVN MODEL WHICH
SHOWS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES IN SATURDAY AND STRONG SOUTHEAST JET
WILL BRING WARMER AIR IN WITH RAPIDLY RISING SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
AND THE N OREGON COAST HEADLANDS. POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IS LESS IN
THE NORTH AS THE SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT RIGHT WITH
THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDARY SURFACE TROF
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ENHANCE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY
BEHIND COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY IN THE CASCADES.
EXTENDED...STRONG WESTERLIES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SERIES
OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS REGION. 
SCHNEIDER
AST +++8 PDX 9898 SLE 98+8 EUG 99+8

.PDX...GALE WARNING CLATSOP SPIT TO FLORENCE.
    ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CLATSOP SPIT TO CAPE SHOALWATER.
    ...SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 3000 FEET NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
        CASCADES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
     ...HIGH WIND WATCH OREGON CENTRAL OREGON COAST SATURDAY.
     ...HIGH WIND WATCH NORTH OREGON COAST HEADLANDS SATURDAY
        AFTERNOON.




NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 

NWS DENVER COLORADO

AFDDEN 350 AM MST SAT FEB 26 2000

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  WINDS WL BE GRADUALLY ON THE DCRS THROUGH 
THIS AFTN AS YDA'S UPR LOW CONTS MOVG OFF OVR THE NRN PLAINS.  ACARS 
AND PROFILERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT DCRS IN THE WINDS ALOFT OVR 
TIME.  STRONG UPR LVL RIDGING WL BE TAKING PLACE OVR THE ROCKYS THRU 
TDA AND TONIGHT...BUT A DECENT PAC JET WL BE ARCING ACRS THE STATE 
BY THIS AFTN.  MODELS SHOW THAT THE JET WL BE LOSING STRENGTH OVR 
TIME...BUT WL STILL HAVE ABT 100 KTS IN ITS CORE BY THIS EVENING.  
AT THE SFC...THE PRES GRAD WL ALSO BE TAKING ITS TIME AS IT 
RELAXES.  THEREFORE...WITH ALL OF THIS KINETIC ENERGY AND STRONG 
VERTICAL MIXING THRU THE AFTN WL SEE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO MIX TO 
THE SFC.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW 20-25 KTS NR THE BNDRY LAYER...SO WL 
NEED TO MENTION THESE TYPES OF WINDS THRU THE FIRST PD.  THE CROSS 
BARRIER FLOW NEAR THE FTHLS IS ALSO PROGGED IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE SO 
THAT SHOULD BE ABT WHAT WE SEE IN ZNS 38...39 AND WRN 40.  IN THE 
MTNS...ABUNDANT MSTR IS TRAPPED AT LOWER AND MID LVLS WHICH WL 
COMBINE WITH COLD ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED 
SNOW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...THE WINDS AT 700 MB ARE ONLY PROGGED AT ABT 
20 KTS WITH CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING A FAIRLY STBL AMS ABV MTN TOP LVL 
AND MSTR ONLY UP TO ARND 600 MB.  OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL ONLY GIVE 
2-4 INCHES WITH THIS SORT OF INPUT.  AS THE CONDS RETURN TO NORMAL 
THRU THIS AFTN...SEE NO NEEDS FOR ANY HI-LITES...AND WL LET THE HIGH 
WND WRNG EXPIRE.  BY AFTN...THE PLAINS SHUD SEE PLENTY OF 
SUNSHINE...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE 
TO REACH 50 ON THE PLAINS.                      KDRBY
  
LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  UPR LVL RDG WL BEGIN TO DVLP OVR RGN AS 
ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WRN US COAST BY SUN.  THIS WL ALLOW FOR A 
WARMING TREND ON SUN AS 700 MB RISE TO ABOVE ZERO OVR NERN CO.  
TEMPS BY AFTN WL LIKELY WRM TO AOA 60 DEGREES IN NERN CO.  IN THE 
MTNS MSTR WL INCR TONIGHT INTO SUN AS MID AND HI LVL MSTR NOW OVR 
NRN NV AND SRN ID MOVES ACRS AREA.  MID-LVL WARMING ALONG WITH  
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPMENT OF WSW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OROGRAPHIC 
PCPN.   

IN THE EXTENDED PD LATEST MRF HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD EMCWF AND 
UKMET SOLUTIONS OF DVLPG CLOSED LOW OVR SRN CA ON MON AND THEN 
EJECTING SYS NORTHEAST INTO SERN CO ON TUE.  IF THIS IS CORRECT THEN MON 
WOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH WRM TEMPS ACRS NERN CO.  BEST CHC OF PCPN 
WOULD OCCUR ON TUE AS SYS MOVES ACRS SERN CO.  CONSIDERING LACK OF 
COLD AIR WITH SYS PCPN WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN ACRS LOWER ELEVATIONS 
WITH SNOW CONFINED TO MTNS.  KLEYLA 

.DEN...NONE.