AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
AFDLBB 225 AM CST SUN MAR 5 2000
UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA MOVING NORTHEAST AND SHOULD TRACK
WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT TO SURFACE WIND ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EASTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROBABLY WON'T BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SURFACE-BASED DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. GIVEN THE
PROJECTED PATH OF THIS UPPER LOW, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND
SOME OF THIS WILL DRAW NORTHWEST WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM, NOTED
IN SATELLITE DATA AT ABOUT 40N/135W AS OF 0730Z. STRONG JET
INDICATED IN CIRRUS TRACK AND AIRCRAFT OBS BEHIND THIS FEATURE WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEP UPPER TROF NEAR NORTHERN BAJA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD THEN TRACK EAST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. 00Z AVN RUN SUPPORTS PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SCATTERED STORMS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH DRYLINE SURGING EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THE 66-72 HR AVN IS CLOSE TO REALITY IN STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF RELEVANT FEATURES, AND IF STATIC STABILITY REMAINS LOW
ENOUGH, HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIM:
FRIONA/TULIA 73/45/75 000
CHILDRESS 75/50/77 000
BROWNFIELD/LUBBOCK 75/47/78 000
ASPERMONT 73/53/78 000
.LBB...NONE.