AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
AFDLBB 215 AM CST MON MAR 6 2000
AIRCRAFT AT 37N/130W SHOWED 160KT WIND AT FL320, SUPPORTING SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STRONG UPPER TROF. SYSTEM IS QUITE COLD ALOFT AS PER
WIDESPREAD CELLULAR CONVECTION OFFSHORE. LATEST ETA LOOKS OK WITH
SOUTHERN TRACK, MOVING CENTER OF MID LEVEL TROF AXIS TO EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST AS IS, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
CHANCE OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS OWING TO STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME
LIFTING OF MOIST AIR DUE TO WARM ADVECTION, AND CHANCE TUESDAY AS
SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT, PUSHING SURFACE DRYLINE EAST. UPPER SYSTEM IS
SO STRONG/COLD ALOFT THAT SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER AS IT MOVES EAST, EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS
WILL HAVE DRIED IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS COULD GET PRETTY
STRONG ACROSS WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE, ROOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS, MAY BE SEVERE.
PRELIM:
FRIONA/TULIA 72/47/64 034
CHILDRESS 78/57/73 134
BROWNFIELD/LUBBOCK 76/53/70 034
ASPERMONT 77/59/75 134
.LBB...NONE.