Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 03/12/00

...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH MOST OF THIS COMING WEEK. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER OCCASIONALLY. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW COMES TO AN END. A STRENGTHENING COASTAL EDDY TONIGHT MAY LIFT THE FOG LAYER AND ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

...DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR TODAY ARE TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMATION. WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE TO HAVE THE KNKX 12/00 UTC SOUNDING TO SEE 24 HOUR CHANGES AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...KVBG RAOBS SHOWING DEEPENING MARINE LAYER SINCE 12/00Z AND KDRA RAOB SHOWED A REVERSAL IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM N TO SW DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRESSURE GRADIENTS KSAN-KIPL WERE EITHER STILL NEGATIVE OR NIL...DURING THE NIGHT INCREASED TO +2 MB...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FORECAST +4 MB. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS BETWEEN GREAT BASIN AND SW CALIFORNIA COAST HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND -8 MB BUT FORECAST TO BE NIL BY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT ACARS/VADS SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS LA BASIN...24 HOUR CHANGES IN DEWPOINTS ALSO GREATEST ALONG ORANGE/LA COASTS. THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE MESOETA/COAMPS MODELS HAVE FORECAST AN EDDY TO SPIN UP AFTER 12/00Z. STRONG NW FLOW OUTER BUOYS AND CHANNEL ISLANDS ALSO SUPPORT EDDY DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER INTERNAL FORECASTER CONSENSUS IS THAT THOUGH SEVERAL PARAMETERS SUPPORT AN EDDY...ONE THAT HAS BEEN MISSING IS SUFFICIENT ONSHORE FLOW AGAINST THE SIERRA DE JUAREZ/SAN PEDRO MARTRIR...THE MOUNTAIN RANGE DOWN THE SPINE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO FORCE A RETURN FLOW TO THE NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SAN DIEGO COAST AND SAN DIEGO MOUNTAINS STILL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND 24 HOUR CHANGE IN DEWPOINTS THERE AND ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER. THUS LAND BREEZE ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL AGAIN DOMINATE AS COOL DRY AIR DRAINS FROM THE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS. WILL RAISE AFTERNOON TEMPS THERE BACK TO YESTERDAYS LEVELS. WAS GOING TO DROP MENTION OF FOG ENTIRELY FROM SAN DIEGO COAST BUT LAST TWO HOURS SHOW VISIBILITY AT MMTJ AND KSDM DROPPING. SATELLITE SHOWS A SMALL PATCH LOW CLOUDS IN THIS AREA SO WILL MENTION DENSE FOG IMMEDIATE COAST. IDEA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND ABOUT 7 DEGREES COOLER THERE AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER INLAND EMPIRE STILL VALID. MADE A FEW MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH NEXT FIVE DAYS. MRF MAX TEMP FORECAST CONTINUE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR SW CALIFORNIA...MOST LIKELY BASED ON THICKNESS CHANGES DUE TO HEIGHT OF 500 MB RIDGE. ONSHORE FLOW MAY OFFSET THIS WEST OF MOUNTAINS SO ONLY CHANGE WAS TO WORD FAIR AS MOSTLY CLEAR.

SAN 000

.SAN...NONE.

BALFOUR



...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH MOST OF THIS COMING WEEK. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER OCCASIONALLY. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS THE PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW COMES TO AN END. A STRENGTHENING COASTAL EDDY TONIGHT MAY LIFT THE FOG LAYER AND ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD AND FOG TO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

...DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR TODAY ARE TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG FORMATION. WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE TO HAVE THE KNKX 12/00 UTC SOUNDING TO SEE 24 HOUR CHANGES AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...KVBG SHOW DEEPENING MARINE LAYER SINCE 12/00Z AND KDRA SHOWS A REVERSAL IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM N TO SW DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRESSURE GRADIENTS KSAN-KIPL WERE EITHER STILL NEGATIVE OR NIL...DURING THE NIGHT INCREASED TO +2 MB...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FORECAST +4 MB. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS BETWEEN GREAT BASIN AND SW CALIFORNIA COAST HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND -8 MB BUT FORECAST TO BE NIL BY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT ACARS/VADS SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS LA BASIN...24 HOUR CHANGES IN DEWPOINTS GREATEST ALONG ORANGE/LA COASTS AND PROFILERS. THE LAST 4 RUNS OF THE MESOETA/COAMPS MODELS HAVE BEEN E FORECASTING AN EDDY TO SPIN UP AFTER 12/00Z AND STRONG NW FLOW OUTER BUOYS AND CHANNEL ISLANDS SUPPORT EDDY DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER INTERNAL FORECASTER CONSENSUS IS THAT THOUGH SEVERAL PARAMETERS SUPPORT AN EDDY...ONE THAT HAS BEEN MISSING IS SUFFICIENT ONSHORE FLOW AGAINST THE SIERRA DE JUAREZ/SAN PEDRO MARTRIR...THE MOUNTAIN RANGE DOWN THE SPINE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO FORCE A RETURN FLOW TO THE NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN SAN DIEGO COAST AND SAN DIEGO MOUNTAINS STILL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND 24 HOUR CHANGE IN DEWPOINTS THERE AND ALONG THE COAST GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER. LAND BREEZE ACROSS SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL AGAIN DOMINATE DUE TO COOL DRY AIR DRAINING FROM MOUNTAINS AND RAISE TEMPS BACK TO YESTERDAYS LEVELS. WAS GOING TO DROP MENTION OF FOG ENTIRELY FROM SAN DIEGO COAST BUT LAST TWO HOURS SHOW VISIBILITY AT MMTJ AND KSDM STARTING TO DROP AND SATELLITE SHOWS A SMALL PATCH LOW CLOUDS IN THIS AREA. IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ALONG ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER INLAND EMPIRE AND ORANGE COUNTY COAST STILL VALID. MADE A FEW MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH NEXT FIVE DAYS. MRF MAX TEMP FORECAST CONTINUE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR SW CALIFORNIA...MOST LIKELY BASED ON THICKNESS CHANGES DUE TO HEIGHT OF 500 MB RIDGE. ONSHORE FLOW MAY OFFSET THIS WEST OF MOUNTAINS SO ONLY CHANGE WAS TO WORD FAIR AS MOSTLY CLEAR. ANTICIPATED.

SAN 000

.SAN...NONE.

BALFOUR