Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 03/18/00




SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

AFDLOX 930 PM PST FRI MAR 17 2000

SYNOPTIC SITUATION...THE TROF THAT PASSED THRU SRN CA LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TODAY...IN
ITS WAKE...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILT OVER SRN CA. THE TROF BROUGHT WAD LEVEL
WINDS TO THE MTS AND THE S CST OF SBA EARLIER TDY. AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSED TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN OVR SE WA...NRN NV AND
SRN IDAHO. THIS PROVIDED THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THAT CAUSED THE GUSTY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WE ARE STILL OBSERVING...MAINLY AT MT LOCATIONS...THIS
EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER SRN CA TODAY...MUCH
OF THE UPPER AIR AND THERMAL SUPPORT FOR THE OFFSHORE WINDS IS ON THE
WANE. ACARS DATA OVR KBUR SHOWS SOME NE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT AT ABOUT
1000 FT AND WINDS PICKED UP IN THE MALIBU HILLS JUST A FEW HOURS AGO.
WAD IS MARGINAL AT BEST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP IT GOING AT LEAST
UNTIL WE SEE THE WINDS IN THE SANTA MONICAS AND THE MTS DIE OFF SOME
MORE. 

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN CA THRU SAT...BUT A SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER WA AND OR ON SAT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND DRAG
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT THRU SRN CA ON SUN. THIS WILL BRING A FEW
CLOUDS...PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE N FACING SLOPES...BUT SKIES
WILL STILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE BIG IMPACT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND VERY STRONG WINDS. THERE ARE BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NOW...BUT...IF THE AVN MODEL
VERIFIES THE FORECAST OF WINDY WOULD BE MORE APPROPRIATE. WADS AND
PERHAPS WARNINGS AND GALES OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS SYSTEM STARTING SUN AND LASTING WELL INTO MONDAY.   

A WORD ABOUT TEMPS...BELIEVE THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE MUCH
TOO WARM FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST...LIKE LAX AND OXNARD. WILL TRIM
THESE BACK A GOOD 5 DEG IN A LATER UPDATE. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST OFFSHORE WINDS TO THE BEACHES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPS...BELIEVE THERE IS A COLDER THAN NORMAL SEA SFC TEMP ANOMALY IN
THE CA BIGHT...WITH WATER TEMPS RUNNING ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE MODELS ARE NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THIS AND THE DENSITY CONTRAST BETWEEN
THE COLD AIR OVR THE WATER AND THE WARM AIR OVER THE INLAND AREAS HAS
RESULTED IN A MUCH STRENGTHENED SEA BREEZE SOLENOID...CAPABLE OF
BUCKING ALL BUT THE STRONGEST OFFSHORE BREEZES. ATT...THE SYSTEM ON
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING
OFFSHORE BREEZES TO THE SHORELINE. BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COOLER AND
STRONGER THAN TODAYS. TIME WILL TELL. 

XTNDD...AFTER THE BIG WINDS ON MONDAY...LOOK FOR FAIR SKIES...WARM
TEMPS...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TUE AND WED.

LAX 0000. DANIELSON

.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLAX)
    ...WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLAX).




EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL 

WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA

AFDSAN 505 AM PST SAT MAR 18 2000

                             ...SYNOPSIS...

THE COASTAL EDDY REDEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG 
NORTH AND INLAND ACROSS SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTIES. SKIES SHOULD 
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID MORNING WITH WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE 
INLAND VALLEYS AND DESERTS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ENJOY MILD SPRING 
WEATHER TODAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN 
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING FARTHER INLAND. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.

                            ...DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY MORNING THERE WERE TWO EDDY CENTERS...THE MAIN ONE CENTERED 
BETWEEN KNSI AND KNUC WHICH MOVED SOUTH...AND A WEAKER ONE NEAR CABO 
SAN QUINTIN WHICH HAS SINCE MOVED NORTH. ALL THE MESOSCALE MODELS 
FOR SEVERAL RUNS HAVE EITHER BEEN SHOWING A PERSISTENT 1016-1018 MB 
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT OR REDEVELOP ONE EACH NIGHT. 
WITH THE SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE COAST CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST 5 
KTS...THE VAD WINDS FROM KNKX WSR-88D SOUTH 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE 
LOWER 8000 FEET...AND LATEST ACARS NOT SHOWING ANY N/NE WINDS 
GREATER THAN 20 KTS IN THE LOWER 15000 FEET...NO SUPPORT SEEN FOR 
GUSTY NE WINDS/10-13 DEGREE WARMING TODAY. THUS AM DROPPING MENTION 
OF WIND FROM MOST ZONES AND PARING THIS AFTERNOONS TEMPERATURES BACK 
TO FRIDAYS READINGS. WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...THE EDDY 
SHOULD STRENGTHEN/MARINE LAYER DEEPEN TONIGHT...SO INTRODUCING LOW 
CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING INLAND. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SHOW A 4 TO 8 
DEGREE DROP OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS/INLAND EMPIRE DUE TO DEEPER 
MARINE LAYER/FURTHER INLAND INTRUSION. ALSO MENTION BREEZY AFTERNOON 
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT 
DROPS SE AND DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW. THE RECENT EUROPEAN AND 
CANADIAN MODELS FAVOR A FARTHER EAST POSITION INITIALLY. EVENTUALLY 
THEY ALL SHOW RETROGRESSION OF THIS LOW. THIS EVENTUALLY COULD PHASE 
WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND CAUSE 
DEVELOPMENT/ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT 
HAVEN'T LOOKED AT FINE DETAILS AND WITH UNCERTAINITY ON WHICH MODEL 
TO USE...CAN'T GET ANY MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT. 

SAN 000

.SAN...NONE.

BALFOUR




EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

AFDSAN 330 AM PST SAT MAR 18 2000

                             ...SYNOPSIS...

THE COASTAL EDDY REDEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG 
NORTH AND INLAND ACROSS SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTIES. SKIES SHOULD 
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID MORNING WITH WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE 
INLAND VALLEYS AND DESERTS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ENJOY MILD SPRING 
WEATHER TODAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN 
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING FARTHER INLAND. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.

                            ...DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY MORNING THERE WERE TWO EDDY CENTERS...THE MAIN ONE CENTERED 
BETWEEN KNSI AND KNUC WHICH MOVED SOUTH...AND A WEAKER ONE NEAR CABO 
SAN QUINTIN WHICH HAS SINCE MOVED NORTH. ALL THE MESOSCALE MODELS 
FOR SEVERAL RUNS HAVE EITHER BEEN SHOWING A PERSISTENT 1016-1018 MB 
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT OR REDEVELOP ONE EACH NIGHT. 
WITH THE SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE COAST CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST 5 
KTS...THE VAD WINDS FROM KNKX WSR-88D SOUTH 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE 
LOWER 8000 FEET...AND LATEST ACARS NOT SHOWING ANY N/NE WINDS 
GREATER THAN 20 KTS IN THE LOWER 15000 FEET...NO SUPPORT SEEN FOR 
GUSTY NE WINDS/10-13 DEGREE WARMING TODAY. THUS AM DROPPING MENTION 
OF WIND FROM MOST ZONES AND PARING THIS AFTERNOONS TEMPERATURES BACK 
TO FRIDAYS READINGS. WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...THE EDDY 
SHOULD STRENGTHEN/MARINE LAYER DEEPEN TONIGHT...SO INTRODUCING LOW 
CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING INLAND. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SHOW A 4 TO 8 
DEGREE DROP OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS/INLAND EMPIRE DUE TO DEEPER 
MARINE LAYER/FURTHER INLAND INTRUSION. ALSO MENTION BREEZY AFTERNOON 
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT 
DROPS SE AND DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW. THE RECENT EUROPEAN AND 
CANADIAN MODELS FAVOR A FARTHER EAST POSITION INITIALLY. EVENTUALLY 
THEY ALL SHOW RETROGRESSION OF THIS LOW. THIS EVENTUALLY COULD PHASE 
WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND CAUSE 
DEVELOPMENT/ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT 
HAVEN'T LOOKED AT FINE DETAILS AND WITH UNCERTAINITY ON WHICH MODEL 
TO USE...CAN'T GET ANY MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT. 

SAN 000

.SAN...NONE.

BALFOUR