Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 03/21/00

.OVERVIEW...A PROGRESSIVE AND RATHER ZONAL PATTERN IS SEEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG 140-160KT H3 JET STREAKS SURROUNDING A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AT 160W ARE KEEPING THINGS MOVING ALONG. WHILE THE MODELS APPEAR RATHER WELL INITIALIZED PER AIRCRAFT REPORTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONSTANTLY IN THE STATE OF CATCHING UP WITH PACIFIC ENERGY RESULTING IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS BEING A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS ONES. .SHORT TERM...WARM ADVECTION IS SPREADING MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE WITH SPRINKLES N COAST/N INTR WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. IT IS RAINING LIGHTLY ACROSS MUCH OF WRN BC. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A CHC OF -RA MAINLY N AND COAST...THEN CLOUDS STICK AROUND BUT POPS DECREASE TUE AS THE REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING/TRAILING CDFNT PASSES. HIGHER MINS TONIGHT AND MAYBE A FEW SUN BREAKS TUE AFTN SHOULD PROVIDE SOME WARMING TUE AFTN...MAYBE MID 50S. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST LATE TUE NIGHT THEN PASSES THE WEST BY LATE WED FOR AN UPWARD TREND ON POPS. MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. .EXTENDED...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH FRI PER MRF. NO MAJOR CHGS UNTIL NEXT MRF SEEN.

UIL 6569 SEA 3327 OLM 3328 ALBRECHT

.KATX...VCP31/CSR31...OPERATIONAL. .SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST FOR HEAVY SWELL.

N 

VIS SATELLITE IMAGRY SHOWING HI CIRRUS SPREADING OVR CWA THIS MORNING ASSOC WITH 50H VORT MAX. VERY STBL AMS WITH WDSPRD FG/ST SLOW TO LIFT BURN OFF THIS MORNING. GIVEN MOIST LOWER LYRS, COOL 85H TEMPS AND INCRG CIRRUS SHIELD WILL SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF MAX TEMP TODAY. MAIN FEATURE IS EVOLUTION OF JET IN GULF OF AK WITH SYS FOR WED. ACARS CONFIRMING AVN MDL WIND FIELDS WITH 175KT JET NR 50N/155-150W. VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH CYCLOGENESIS IN BASE OF TROF XPCTD TO ARRIVE WED. YET AHD OF THAT A WK SYS WILL TEASE THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAIN FEATURE BEING SIGNIFICANT 85H WARMING DURING THE NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO UPR LVL SUPPORT WITH VRY WK SFC GRADS. HOWEVER MAY SEE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ALG COAST AND W ENTRANCE WITH THIS. WITH THE WARM AIR OVERRUNNING... RAIN CHANCES ARE GREATEST CST AND OLYMPICS... YET POSSIBLE TO SEE A LIGHT RAIN OVER INLAND AREAS TUE MORNING. XPCT SIGNIFICANT WARMING TUE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING. QUERCIAGROSSA

UIL 236 SEA 123 OLM 123

.KATX...VCP31/CSR31...OPERATIONAL. .SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST FOR HEAVY SWELL.

N 

...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS ARIZONA. COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS COMBINATION OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BRING SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.

...DISCUSSION... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE APPLE/YUCCA VALLEYS UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING...PRETTY MUCH STAYED WITH THE FORECAST/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR FIRST PERIOD. LATEST METARS... RAWS...ACARS SHOW WINDS ON THE INCREASE AGAIN THIS MORNING. DOWNWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES BETWEEN -9 TO -20 UBAR/SEC BY 15Z DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS USED. 700 MB MODEL WINDS THROUGH 18Z AND KSOX WSR-88D VAD WINDS AT 10000 FT AT 1030Z SHOW 50 KTS COMING ACROSS SW CALIFORNIA. ACARS OUT OF ONTARIO AT 1056Z SHOWED 60KT AT 4000 FT. SO MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE. WITH ONGOING FIRST PERIOD WEATHER THERE NEVER IS ENOUGH TIME TO SORT OUT FINE DETAILS. USED FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 60 MPH FOR WIND PRONE AREAS AS A FIRST APPROXIMATION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE UNOFFICIAL WIND OBSERVATIONS CLOSE TO 100 MPH BEFORE THE MORNING IS DONE. AS WITH YESTERDAY...WILL PLUG MODEL NUMBERS INTO LOCAL WIND SCHEME LATER AND ISSUE UPDATE AROUND 6 AM IF SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE COMPUTED.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TRACKING SW ACROSS S NEVADA/NW ARIZONA EXTRAPOLATES CLOSE TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...THIS IS ALSO PICKED UP IN THE ETA MODEL. MODIFIED SUNNY/CLEAR FORECASTS FOR THOSE ZONES TO INCREASING CLOUDS/PARTLY CLOUDY. EXCEPT FOR OROGRAPHICAL LIFTING ALONG THE NE FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE/SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELD AS MENTIONED ABOVE IS DOWNWARD AND SHOULD OVERCOME LOCAL EFFECTS THAT MIGHT GENERATE PRECIPITATION.

IN THE EXTENDED...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO BLEND WITH UPSTREAM FORECASTS OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.

SAN 000

.SAN...HIGH WIND WARNINGS/WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUED UNTIL 2 PM EXCEPT UNTIL 9AM APPLE/YUCCA VALLEYS

BALFOUR