Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 03/22/00

...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO SOME THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND THE DESERTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER.

...DISCUSSION... ACARS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW STRONG NORTH WINDS ALOFT AND THEY ARE SURFACING IN THE NORTHERN DESERTS...THE CAJON PASS...THE INLAND EMPIRE...THE ORANGE COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES AND THE COACHELLA VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN STRENGTHEN AS THE INVERSION BREAKS DOWN. BUT WILL LET WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES EXPIRE AND MENTION GUSTY WINDS IN THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OREGON THIS AFTERNOON MOVES OVER WESTERN WYOMING TONIGHT...AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES AND THE FOOTHILL AREAS SUCH AS CAMPO AND ALPINE.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SEVERAL DEGREES TOMORROW AS 850 MB TEMPS AND 1000-500 MB THKNS INCREASE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REACH COASTAL AREAS LATE WED NIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY AND AM NOT CONVINCED THE CLOUDS WILL REACH THE INLAND VALLEYS THURSDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY FOR SLIGHT COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

IN THE EXTENDED THE THE MRF AND UK HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRING A LONG WAVE TROF INTO CA THIS WEEKEND...WHICH FORMS A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOCAL SUNDAY. THIS CUTOFF SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE SINCE THE UPSTREAM FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE PACIFIC...AND A LONGWAVE TROF WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES MAY CHANGE.

SAN 000

.SAN...NONE

MOEDE

...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO SOME AREAS TODAY. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY.

...DISCUSSION... ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATED 40 KT NORTHERLY WINDS AT 2250 FT OVER ONTARIO THIS MORNING. MODERATELY STRONG (-6MB/SEC) DVV ASSOCIATED WITH NVA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TODAY...MAINLY TO NORTH-SOUTH FACING VALLEYS AND CANYONS WHERE TRAJECTORIES FAVOR WIND FUNNELING. SO AREAS LIKE THE INLAND EMPIRE...THE CAJON PASS...AND THE YUCCA AND COACHELLA VALLEYS CAN EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP WARNINGS/ADV GOING IN THESE AREAS TODAY.

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER AZ MOVES LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER WINDY NIGHT IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA MOVES EAST AND WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOCAL. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT DROPPED INTO THE 30S WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WINDS DIED TO CALM...YET REMAINED IN THE 50S WHERE WINDS STAYED STRONG. EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TONIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE 00Z MRF PROJECTS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH WOULD SLOW THE EASTERN PROGRESS OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE PACIFIC. WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND HOW THEY WILL AFFECT THE WEEKEND THIS AFTERNOON.

SAN 000

.SAN...HIGH WIND WARNINGS/WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUED UNTIL 2 PM

MOEDE

KHGX AND SFC OBS INDICATE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HUMID AND MILD OVER SERN TX. THE MAIN UPDATE ISSUES ARE THE SEVERE THREAT... POPS...AND TEMPS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK SEEN ON WV IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT/ UPPER AIR OBS OVER NRN MX ARE NOT HANDLED PARTICULARLY WELL BY THE LATEST RUC RUNS AND JUST IN 00Z ETA. HOWEVER...SURROUNDING 00Z CRP/DRT/LCH/SHV/FWD RAOBS POINT TO GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER NORTHWEST OF SERN TX...PER LATEST SPC SWODY1. THERE SEEMS TO BE A SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING THREAT WED INTO THU AM. SIMILARLY...POPS MAY ALSO NEED INVERTING TO HIGHER VALUES IN LATER PERIODS.

WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY LATER PERIOD CHANGES BUT MAKE THE FOLLOWING CHANGES FOR TONIGHT...REMOVAL OF SEVERE THREAT...POPS WORDING TO OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WITH MEASURABLE RAIN POP. TEMPS ARE ALREADY WELL BELOW THE FORECAST MINS IN THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA BEHIND THE NOW SOUTH SAGGING WARM BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN 5-8F EXCEPT FOR THE SWRN ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. WILL ALSO DIAL DOWN THE MARINE FORECAST ONE NOTCH TO SCEC FOR THE BAYS AND ALL OFFSHORE WATERS.

THANKS FOR COORD LCH.

.KHGX...SCEC BAYS AND GULF WATERS.

31/30/35

UPDATED PRELIMS... CLL TE 059/074 065/078 063 5523 IAH TE 062/076 066/078 066 5523 GLS EB 067/073 068/074 068 3423 SW EB 069/074 069/076 068 2423 NE EE 057/077 063/077 065 5423



SATELLITE PICTURES (FOG PRODUCT CHANNEL 11-4) SHOW CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO MV N THRU THE CHICAGO AREA INTO SERN WI...BUT 925MB PROFILER WINDS FROM NW INDIANA AND ACARS WINDS FM AIRCRAFT IN THE ORD AND RFD AREAS SHOW THAT WINDS ARE VEERING FM SE TO SW AS MODELS SUGGEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA TODAY... THOUGH THEY COULD BREAK UP A BIT IN THE SERN PART OF THE CWA BEFORE THE MIDDLE CLOUDS ARRIVE FM THE SW. THESE MIDDLE CLOUDS ARE MORE OR LESS IN WAA AREA AHEAD OF SWRN US UPPER LOW AND AHEAD OF WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE NRN STREAM. THEREFORE IT SHOULD BE CLOUDY TODAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW THIS AFTERNOON AFTER TROF MVS BY AND THE SE PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

TEMP FCST LOOKS GOOD...AND DON/T CONTEMPLATE ANY BIG CHANGES. DEWPOINTS NOT FCST TO FALL MUCH TONIGHT WITH WEAK SFC TROF MVG THRU TODAY...SO TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO DROP TOO MUCH...BUT THINK THEY COULD DROP A BIT LOWER THAN MOS...AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR A BIT...AND IT IS MARCH YET! THURSDAY LIKELY TO WARM A BIT MORE AS 850MB TEMPS WARM UP. EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG LAKESHORE WHERE A SE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN 40S.

NEW MRF SUGGESTS THAT WINTER MIGHT THINK ABOUT RETURNING AROUND THE END OF THE MONTH AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PAC MVS E AND INDUCES RIDGING IN THE WRN US AND CANADA...AND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BEGIN TO BUILD TWDS GREENLAND AS WELL. THIS WOULD FAVOR AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND DRIVE COLDER AIR DOWN INTO LWR 48.

.GRB...NONE.

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