AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
AFDSEW 855 AM PST WED MAR 29 2000
INITIALIZATION OF AVN EXCELLENT COMPARED TO ACARS/PLOT FILES WITH
BOTH 170KT JET AND VORT LOBE POSITIONS. AS SUCH PREFER AVN AND
INHERENT MDL STRENGTHS WITH JET. SATELLITE INDICATING TRIPLE POINT
FORMING NR 48N/138W WITH ASSOCD WRMFNT STREAMING WELL AHD AND SE OF
POINT. HOWEVER LEADING EDGE OF MID/HI LVL MOISTURE ERODING AWAY AS
MOISTURE RUNS INTO AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVR WRN WA. THIS COMPLICATES PCPN
FIELD AND WHETHER ANY WILL GET INTO WRN WA OR NOT TONIGHT. INCLINED
TO GO FOR ONLY HI CLOUDS. THERMAL TROF SPREADING NWD ALG W CST
TODAY/TONIGHT... ENHANCING NLY FLOW ACRS WRN WA THRU THU. XPCT THIS
TO ENHANCE FG THU MORNING. NLY SFC FLOW COUPLED WITH NWLY FLOW ALF
KEEPING T'S COOL TODAY IN SPITE OF SUN... WITH CRUX OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION ARRIVING THU NIGHT WHEN 85H T'S CLIMB 10C. WHILE SUCH
WARMING IS TEMPTING FOR HOPEFUL 60'S... INCRG CLOUD COVER FRI MAY
DAMP OUT SOME OF THE WARMING. AS FOR THE EXTENDED... MDLS IN COMPLETE
DISARRAY... FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED HIR AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WITH
THE CANADIAN/ECM/UK... TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE MRF. HOWEVER NOTICED A
SLIGHT TREND OF THE MRF TWD THE OTHER SOLN'S IN PAST COUPLE RUNS.
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO XTNDD NOW... YET WILL CONSIDER THIS
TREND AND NEW STATS OFF MDLS. QUERCIAGROSSA.
UIL 123 SEA 10- OLM 101
.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.
.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST FOR HEAVY SWELL.
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