Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 04/22/00




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

AFDBTV 936 PM EDT FRI APR 21 2000

FORECAST AREA IN A LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION.
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS AREA WILL BE MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FINALLY UP
THE MAIN COAST BY SUNDAY KEEPING THE AREA WET.

INTERESTING BURST OF BRIEF HEAVY SNOW COVERED THE GROUND EARLIER
THIS EVENING. ACARS DATA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY LOW
FREEZING LEVELS AND ISOTHERMAL PROFILE TO NEARLY 700 MB. PROFILES
WILL WARM SLOWLY OVERNIGHT, SO ANY WET SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN ALL LOCATIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT AND SLOPPY AND GENERALLY ABOVE 1100 FT MSL.
AFTERNOON RUC RUNS DID A NICE JOB WITH BOTH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST AND EXPLICIT PRECIP TYPE.

AS LOW MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WINDS WILL BACK
AROUND TO NORTH SO TEMPERATURES WILL GO NO WHERE FAST. COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND MAY BRING BRING
A BIT OF SNOW BACK TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER ON.

24-H PRECIPITATION TOTALS SO FAR:
1.37 AT KMSS
1.09 AT CANTON
0.99 AT UNDERHILL
0.84 AT K1V4
0.69 AT KSLK
0.68 AT KVSF
0.61 AT KBTV
0.48 AT KPLB

ANOTHER 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
RIVERS ARE RISING AND ONE OR TWO FORECAST POINTS STILL HAVE
STAGE FORECASTS REACHING NEAR BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO
SO WILL FLOOD WATCH INTACT.

WORK ZONES IN ALBADMBTV.

.BTV...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY VTZ001>012...NYZ026>031-034-
       035.

SISSON




EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

AFDSAN 300 AM PDT SAT APR 22 2000

                             ...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST 
WITH SHOWERS ENDING OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. GUSTY 
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT. DRY WITH A 
WARMING TREND FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

                            ...DISCUSSION...
AVN ON TARGET AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED. CSTL EDDY CONTINUES THIS 
MORNING WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALG AND W OF THE 
MTNS IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. MAX AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE 
ON CSTL SLOPES THRU MID MORNING...BUT GENERALLY TRACE TO ONE TENTH 
INCH ALG AND W OF MTNS THRU MID MORNING. GRADUAL LWRG OF SUBSIDENCE 
INVERSION AROUND 7000 FT AS SHOWN IN ACARS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TRENDS 
IN THE DECR IN LOW LVL MSTR DEPTH SHOWN FOR SRN CA THIS MORNING BY 
ETA/AVN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES FOR MTNS W TO BECOME PARTLY TO 
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR A CSTL EDDY 
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT...THOUGH SUPPORT WKNS A LTL EACH NIGHT. 
WL CONTINUE AREAS OF CSTL LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT...BUT CONFINE CLOSER 
TO THE CST EACH NIGHT AS MARINE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND LWRS IN 
RESPONCE TO BUILDING UPR RDG OVR SRN CA. STRONG..GUSTY WINDS WL 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT TODAY...LOW END OF ADV LVLS FOR 
AREAS ADJ TO APPLE AND YUCCA VLYS...AND JUST BLO LOW END OF ADV LVLS 
FOR APPLE AND YUCCA VALLEY. DESERT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECR IN 
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SUN.

EXTENDED...MDLS NOT IN PERFECT AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL 
SHORTWAVES OVR THE CNTRL AND ERN PAC...BUT ECMWF/MRF ARE NOW IN 
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVR 
THE ERN PAC ALG 140W MON THRU WED WITH A BUILDING DOWNSTREAM RDG OVR 
THE SW. MDLS THEN PROGRESS THIS TROUGH INLAND ALG THE W CST LATE IN 
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVR SRN CA SHOULD BUILD STEADILY TO ABV 
SEASONAL NORMS BY WED...THEN BEGIN A DECR INTO THE WEEKEND.

SAN 500

.SAN...NONE.  

MARTIN




SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

AFDLOX 905 AM PDT SAT APR 22 2000

EXTENSIVE MARINE LAYER STILL IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH LATEST ACARS SOUNDING INDICATING MARINE LAYER DEPTH
AROUND 4000 FEET ACROSS THE LA BASIN. SATELLITE LOOP STILL INDICATIVE
OF EDDY CIRCULATION. WITH VERY DEEP MARINE LAYER AND STRONG ONSHORE
SURFACE GRADIENTS...SHOULD BE STUBBORN BURNOFF PATTERN FOR LA BASIN
SOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY VALLEY AREAS. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS
DURING NEXT HOUR TO DETERMINE IF MORE CLOUDS WILL HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOME OF OUR ZONES.

VERY STRONG ONSHORE PUSH WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS GOING TODAY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH WIND ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT TODAY
FOR ANTELOPE VALLEY. SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SUNDOWNER WIND EVENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
EVEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...RESULTING IN GALE WARNING
FOR PORTION OF OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND PROBABLE WIND ADVISORIES FOR
SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL TODAY DUE TO DEEP MARINE LAYER
AND GOOD ONSHORE PUSH. MODEST WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
MOST AREAS SUNDAY...DUE TO BETTER CLEARING PATTERN AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.  

LAX 000. GOMBERG

.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/GALE WARNINGS...SEE LAXCWFLAX.
    ...WIND ADVISORY..........................SEE LAXNPWLAX.