Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 04/29/00

...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING THE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT... WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LESS COASTAL CLOUDS.

...DISCUSSION... STRATUS HAS BLOSSOMED RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND EXTENDS FROM THE COASTS TO THE COASTAL SLOPES METARS SHOW BASES FROM 3.5 TO 5K FT AND SOME RAWS MOUNTAIN SITES SHOW HIGH RH. KNKX RAOB FROM 00Z SHOWED BASE OF INVERSION AT 2.4K FT WITH A CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED INVERSION. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION ALMOST GONE NOW AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FOG LOOP STILL SHOWS A SMALL EDDY MOVING INLAND NEAR KOKB AND WINDS AT KCRQ CONFIRM. OTHERWISE...EDDY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN QUITE STRONG TO THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER DESERTS. SEVERAL RAWS SITES IN THE SAN DIEGO MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER DESERTS SHOW WEST WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LATEST 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TRENDS FROM EARLIER RUNS CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA. SURFACE GRADIENTS GRADUALLY BECOME OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEFLY. WARMING SHOULD BEGIN SATURDAY AND A BIG JUMP IN DAYTIME HIGHS INLAND IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. COASTAL CLOUDS LOOK PATCHY AT BEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ORANGE COUNTY.

AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED AT 730 PM TO ADDRESS SOME OF THE CLOUD AND WIND ISSUES...AND IT LOOKS LIKE SOME FINE TUNING WILL BE IN ORDER BASED ON PRESENT TRENDS. SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETECT ANY WELL DEVELOPED EDDY AT THIS TIME WILL NOT FACTOR A CONTINUING EDDY INTO THE FORECAST. WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES...LOWER SURFACE RH...AND COLD ADVECTION...STRATUS PATTERN LIKELY TO BE A BIT MORE DISORGANIZED TONIGHT WITH SOME DECREASE LIKELY BY MORNING. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE SHORTLY.

SAN 0000

.SAN...NONE.

JAD



...SYNOPSIS... THIS MORNING...A FRONTAL TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND MOVING EAST WHILE A WEAK COASTAL EDDY REMAINED OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THROUGH THE CANYONS AND PASSES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

...DISCUSSION... COASTAL EDDY CIRCULATION STILL APPARENT AT 10Z IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND AND THE SAN DIEGO COAST. RAWS...VAD WINDS...AND ACARS WINDS SHOW S-SE WINDS BELOW 4000 FT MSL AND MODERATE TO STRONG WNW WINDS ABOVE 6000 FT. ACARS SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SHOW STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 4500 AND 6000 FT. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN MID LEVELS WILL WIPE THIS OUT...BUT HOPING IT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING AS CURRENTLY HAVE NO WIND ADVISORIES OUT. ORIENTATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS INDICATES 09Z REPORT OF BLOWING SAND AT THERMAL WAS DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVE SURFACING. HIGHEST SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND GUSTS ACROSS COACHELLA VALLEY AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS HAVE BEEN BELOW 30 MPH AND AM FORECASTING SIMILAR SPEEDS FOR TODAY. ETA MODEL BRINGS THE 850-700 MB FLOW AROUND TO THE NE AFTER 30/06Z. PREVIOUS FORECASTS INDICATED BREEZY IN WIND PRONE AREAS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. BEEFED UP WORDING SOME AND RAISED TEMPERATURES TO FWC NUMBERS.

THE OTHER SHORT TERM PROBLEM IS FROM THE ARRIVAL OF THE SWELL GENERATED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS YESTERDAY. SWELL PERIOD IS RELATIVELY LOW SO REFRACTION MINIMAL AROUND ISLANDS...HOWEVER PREVAILING DIRECTION FROM OUTER BUOYS INDICATES 310 DEGREES...WHICH COULD PASS THROUGH THE WINDOW BETWEEN CATALINA ISLAND AND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND AND REACH SOUTH SAN DIEGO COAST. BEEFED UP HEIGHT OF SWELL AND SURF FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RUNNING SOLO FORECAST SHIFT TONIGHT DUE TO SICK LEAVE. IF TIME PERMITS WILL ISSUE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT LATER THIS AM...MENTIONING HIGHER THAN NORMAL SURF.

EXTENDED FORECAST...KEPT WARM TEMPERATURES/OFFSHORE FLOW GOING THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME DEVIATION BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND MRF AFTER WEDNESDAY BUT IDEA OF NEXT SHORT WAVE BEATING DOWN RIDGE AND LOWERING HEIGHTS...RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE.

.SAN...NONE ATTM.

BALFOUR