Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 05/12/00

...SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. COOLER...LOCALLY BREEZY...AND INCREASING NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES SLOWLY INLAND.

...DISCUSSION... UPDATED COAST AND VLY ZONES. EARLY EVENING ACARS SOUNDINGS FM LGB/LGB SHOW A VRY SHALLOW NR SURFACE BASED INVERSION. ANY STRATUS TONIGHT TONIGHT FOR ORANGE COUNTY LIKELY TO BE PATCHY AND IN THE FORM OF DENSE FOG. HAVE RETAINED ONLY PATCHY WORDING FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY AS WELL AS STRATUS SHOULD BE MINIMAL TONIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY FRI NIGHT. ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARD FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND INLAND EMPIRE FOR FRI MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST NGM MOS GUIDNACE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH PAC UPR LOW MOVG SLOWLY INLAND INTO CA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SAN 0000

.SAN...NONE.

MARTIN

FCST PROB TDA IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SVR WX OUTBREAK ACRS FA.

SFC MAP AT 06Z SHOWS TRIPLE POINT LOW NR KMSN WITH WARM FRONT ARCHING THRU MI AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO KS WITH SECONDARY WAVE NR KICT. OF PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AM IS LG OUTFLOW BNDRY FM SVR MCS NOW CROSSING LK MI. KORD REF LOOP SHOWS BNDRY SINKING SE TOWARD CHI AREA AND CONSISTENT REDEVELOPMENT SWD INTO EXTREME NE IL ATTM. 00Z RAOBS INDICATING SIG CAP IN PLACE HWVR LATEST RUC SIMILAR TO AVN IN DEPICTING DVLPG WKNS THIS AM LIKELY TIED TO CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX IN WI. SO MAY NEED AM GROUP IN ZONES TO CVR THIS BUT WILL KEEP CLOSE EYE ON DVLPMNTS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME AND DECIDE THEN.

ETA/AVN INITIALIZED WELL AND BOTH DEPICT CURRENT CONVECTION WITH AVN DOING BEST. ETA DOES LOOK TO SUFFER FM CONV FEEDBACK ON 12HR PROG WITH IMPLIED VORT MAX ALG WI/IL LINE BUT WILL USE BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. MAIN FCST ISSUE IS WHEN/WHERE SVR CONV TO FIRE TDA. OUTFLOW FM MI MCS MAY TRIGGER NEW DVLPMNT ACRS FAR N TIER THIS AM OR JUST SIT THERE UNTIL AFTERNOON AND THEN FIRE WITH APPROACH OF MID LVL SW TROF AND COLD FRONT. SEEMS PROGGED RUC/AVN WKNS IN CAP CORRECT WITH LOOK AT ACARS DESCENT SNDGS INTO ORD. ADDITIONALLY...NEW STORMS WERE FIRING NR KPIA. AT ANY RATE... ASSUMING CONV DOES FIRE LTR THIS AM... STORMS WILL RAPIDLY GO SVR GIVEN EXTREME POTENTIAL ENERGY UPSTREAM ADVECTING IN TKS TO 40 TO 50KT LOW LVL JET IN PLACE.

MAIN EVENT TO OCCUR THIS PM. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID/LOW LVL LAPSE RATES...LOW 70 DEWPOINTS AND SIG 0-3KM SHR NR 30 M/S FAVR SUPERCELLS WITH VRY LG HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EXTREME SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AOA 4K J/KG LIKELY WITH PROGGED MAXS SO ISOLATED TORS INDEED POSSIBLE. XPC CURRENT MCS OVR NW MI TO WKN LTR THIS AM WITH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING MI MCV TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION TO JACK MAXS WAY ABV GUIDANCE NUMBERS. POTENTIAL TEMPS FM ILX MIXED FM 850/800MB GIVE 85/90 RESPECTIVELY. THIS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YDA IN WARM SECTOR OVR SE NE/IA WITH READING THERE NR 100 OVR SW IA. POSITION OF THETA-E RIDGE/DIFFLUENT THCK AND PWATS SUGGEST HVY RAINS LIKELY WITH AVN QPF PROG DEFINITELY BEST. SQUALL LINE ALG COLD FRONT WILL MARCH THRU FA THIS EVENING WITH ANY TRAILING STRATIFORM SHOWERS COMING TO END BY 12Z SO YANKED CHC POP FOR SAT. WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND QUITE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO GREAT LKS. THICKNESS CRASH PROPOSED BY AVN SAT NIGHT MAY LEAD TO SCT FROST BUT WAY TO EARLY TO JUMP ON THAT BANDWAGON.

.IWX...NONE.

TEH