AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
AFDFWA 325 AM EST SUN MAY 21 2000
AT 06Z SFC RIDGE EXTENDED SW FM MI ACRS FA TO SRN IL WITH A TROF FM
MN-TX PHDL. MSAS SFC PRES AND STLT LOOPS INDICATE SLOW EWD
MOVEMENT TO THESE SYSTEMS. STLT AND SFC OBS INDICATE PATCHY STRATO
CU REMAINING OVER AREA...MAINLY SRN SECTIONS. WLCI3 PROFILER SHOWING
LIGHT WLY FLOW DVLPG OVR FA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NETWORK SHOWING
A LTL STRONGER FLOW UPSTREAM ACRS MS RVR VLY. SFC OBS INDICATE WDSPD
BR OVR AREA ATTM WITH ISOLD FG. PATCHY STRATO CU AND DEPARTING
CIRRUS SHD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING REST OF NIGHT SO EXPECT DENSE
FOG TO BE PATCHY AND BURN OFF EARLY. OTRWS, LGT WLY FLOW AND MIXING
SHD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN YDAY ACRS THE FA. S/WV MOVG EAST FM
PLAINS SHD SPREAD HI CLDS ACRS WRN IND/MI THIS AFTN. PARTLY SUNNY
EXPECTED TO BE BEST DESCRIPTION OF CLD COVER TODAY.
ETA/NGM FCSTS SIMILAR NXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PREFERRED OVER
INCONSISTENT AVN. S/WV OVR PLAINS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACRS FA
TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SYSTEM WL BE WKNG, HWVR SHWRS IN VCNTY OF
TROF WERE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN INDICATED BY MODELS THIS EVE, SO WL
BUY INTO LOW FWC POPS FOR TONIGHT. IN WAKE OF THIS S/WV, NW FLOW
DVLPS OVR AREA FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE DROPPING SE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WL HAVE WEAK INSTABILITY AVLBL ALONG
WITH SOME SFC MOIST CONVERGENCE, SO CHC OF TSTMS SEEMS REASONABLE
FOR MON AFTN.
LOW CLD DECK HAS BEEN CAUSING PROBLEMS FOR MOS TEMPS LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. COMAPRISON OF RECENT ACARS OUT OF ORD WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS MODELS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON LOW LVL TEMP PROFILE ATTM, JUST
NEED TO BREAK OUT OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY TO WARM UP AT SFC. SHD BE ENUF
SUNSHINE/MIXING TODAY FOR THIS TO HAPPEN SO HAVE GONE CLOSE TO MOS
TEMPS. FWC/FAN SIMILAR THRU REST OF PD AND LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
925MB TEMP FCSTS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS.
.IWX...NONE.
JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
AFDCYS 200 AM MDT SUN MAY 21 2000
WARMING AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVR SE WY AND THE WRN NEB PNHNDL THRU
TUE...WITH MUCH ABV NORMAL TEMPS BY MON AND TUE. MDLS SIM IN SHOWING
RISING HGTS OVR THE AREA DRG THAT TIME. BROAD FAIRLY FLAT RDG DVLPS
ON MON WITH ZONAL FLW...GNRLY TO OUR N...FROM THE ERN PAC TO THE N
CNTRL PRT OF THE COUNTRY. FOR TDA...FAIR AMNT OF MID AND HI CLDS SHUD
CONT TO MOV OVR THE CWA IN NNW FLW ALFT. CURRENT WIND PROFILERS AND
ACARS DATA SHOW WINDS AT H5 AND ABV FROM 330 TO 350. THAT DIRECTION
SHUD CONT THRU TDA WITH ONLY SLGT VEERING. MDLS DO NOT PICK UP TOO
WELL ON THIS MOR NRLY WIND...WITH PERHAPS THE AVN THE CLOSEST. THE
RESULT WILL BE THE PTCLDY SKIES AND SLGTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN XPCTD
AND GIVEN BT GUIDANCE. WITH THE NVA OVR THE AREA AND A TEMP INVRSN
BTN H6 AND H5 FCST AS WELL AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z RIW RAOB...SHWRS AND
TSTMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BTN AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF FCST FOR NOW.
TDA WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH NW SFC WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH BY MID
TO LT MRNG AS INDICATED BY CURRENT AREA WIND PROFILERS. MON SHUD
HAV LESS CLDS AND EVEN LESS OF A THREAT FOR PCPN IN THE WARMER AND
DRIER AIR. FAN MAX TEMPS ARE 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE FWC
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE FWC TEMPS FOR
NOW...ESP TDA.
.CYS...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
WEILAND