NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
AFDFLG 830 PM MST MON JAN 01 2001
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN SEASONAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY AND WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LATITUDE
DISTURBANCE WEST OF BAJA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
STATE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING SOME BREEZES TO THE AREA. HEIGHTS
FALL FOR A FEW DEGREES OR MORE OFF TODAYS HIGHS. SURFACE GRADIENT
AND EASTERLY 7H WIND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL MENTION
LOCALLY BREEZY IN FAVORED ZONES. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO REBOUND ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT PACKAGE AND NO UPDATES
PLANNED.
AS DISCUSSED THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...THE LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK CIRCULATION
CENTER CAN BE SEEN NEAR 30N 115W. THIS LOCATION IS MANY DAYS AHEAD
OF THE TIMING IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. IN FACT, MODELS ALL SUGGESTED
IT WOULD TAKE THE LONG WAY BY ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE FIRST. A
SECOND CIRCULATION CENTER WAS NOTED NEAR 18N 125W. ACARS SHOW THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW ON THE EAST SIDE SO WOULD EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT THE LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW
THIS SYSTEM TO PHASE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W TROF. SOME
AMPLIFICATION LIKELY AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT. SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS DRY IN LOW LEVELS SO NO REAL CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. DB
.FGZ...NONE.