AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
AFDSEW 330 PM PST WED JAN 3 2001
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD FRONT ALMOST TO THE COAST AT 22Z. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE WITH MANY OF THE FRONTS MOVING INTO THE AREA THE LAST
FEW DAYS THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST.
STILL...KUIL HAS HAD 0.81 INCHES SINCE 18Z. THE RAIN HAS JUST BEGUN
DURING THE LAST HOUR IN THE METRO AREA. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
OF AROUND 02Z ON THE COAST AND 06Z INTO THE CASCADES STILL ON TRACK.
WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING WITH PASS TEMPERATURES STILL
IN THE TWENTIES AND ACARS SOUNDING INDICATING FREEZING LEVEL OVER
CASCADES 6000 FEET. NO COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SO ONCE THE FRONT
GOES THROUGH PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS NOW BROKEN
DOWN. NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR 45/145W. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BETTER RAIN
PRODUCER FOR THE AREA WITH MOISTURE FROM TYPHOON SOULIK NEAR GUAM
ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. MODEL QPS QUITE DIFFERENT AND PREFER THE
SOMEWHAT DRIER MM5 SOLUTION SINCE SYSTEM IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
WRAPPING UP AND PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TURNING NORTH.
WITH 850 MB WINDS PROGGED TO BE SW AT 40 KT WITH THE SYSTEM SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS WILL GET THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM PRECIP WISE
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME IT
DOES NOT LOOK WET ENOUGH TO PUSH THE SKOKOMISH ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
TRAILING COLD FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
.EXTENDED...EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY BUT
THEME OF MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES. NEW
MRF SHOWS DEEP LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY BUT THIS IS
QUITE DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS RUN. EVEN THOUGH RIDGE IS GONE...MRF
INDICATING UPPER FLOW OFFSHORE SPLITTING ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD BRUSH FOR NOW.
.AFD BONUS...HERE ARE SOME SEATTLE RAINFALL STATS SINCE THAT SEEMS TO
BE A POPULAR TOPIC THESE DAYS.
DECEMBER PRECIP 2.51 INCHES...4TH DRIEST AT SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT.
NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER PRECIP 5.77 INCHES...2ND DRIEST AT SEA-TAC.
OF THE TOP 10 DRIEST NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER PRECIPS...FOUR WERE IN
NEUTRAL YEARS WHICH IS WHAT WE ARE IN NOW. OF THOSE FOUR THE
FOLLOWING JANUARY WAS VERY DRY ONE YEAR AND SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON THE PRECIP IN THE OTHER THREE YEARS INCLUDING THE RECORD
WET MONTH AT SEA-TAC OF JANUARY 1953...12.92 INCHES. CONCLUSION...
JUST BECAUSE NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER WAS DRY IT DOESN'T MEAN JANUARY
WILL BE TOO. FELTON
UIL 9688 SEA 8288 OLM 8288
.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL
.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST FOR HEAVY SWELL...HOOD CANAL FOR
WIND.