AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
AFDOKX 230 PM EST MON JAN 8 2001
SFC OBS AND ACARS SHOWS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS WARMED AND WILL RECEIVE
MAINLY RAIN. LOOKING AT NEW MODEL RUN...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING CAT POPS NEEDED FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. WILL
KEEP NW ZONES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS
METRO AREA AND LI ZONES...WITH A MIXTURE THIS EVENING. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE LATE THIS EVENING AND THE UPPER TROF CAN KICK
ANYTHING OFF...IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT THAT POINT. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD LAST UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. FOR SRN
CT...NORTHEAST NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL ALSO BECOME ALL SNOW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
INTERIOR SRN CT AND ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES OF NY.
HOWEVER...ORANGE AND PUTNAM WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF SO
NO MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ANYWHERE. A COUPLE OF HEAVIER
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT MAY PROVIDE A LOCALIZED
DUSTING TO AN INCH.
THEN MODELS MOVE THE LOW WELL TO OUR EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DIVES TO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR. STILL SOME MOISTURE AROUND SO A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BE TOUCHED OFF. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COLD
AND WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS WITH CAA TAKING PLACE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE DRIES BUT ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. ALL MODELS SHOWS CDFNT
PASSING THROUGH. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACTUALLY PASSES QUICKLY
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO OUR NORTHEAST. THEN WAA TAKES PLACE LATER
WEDNESDAY. STILL...NOT IN TIME TO PREVENT ANOTHER COLD DAY
WEDNESDAY. WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT MOS BY 5 DEGREES. WILL CALL IT PARTLY
SUNNY.
WEST WINDS ON THU WARM US UP SLIGHTLY...AND IT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WX
THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE: WE WILL BE POSTING SCA ALL WATERS WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS
COME UP LATE TONIGHT AND TUE.
.OKX...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
.MARINE...NONE.
WICHROWSKI