Forecast Discussions mentioning ACARS, received at FSL on 01/26/01




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION          

NWS EUREKA CA

AFDEKA 230 PM PST THU JAN 25 2001

WEATHER QUIETING DOWN AS FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH BUT STILL HAVE MAIN 
LOW TO SINK DOWN ALONG COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD 
SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER TIMING OF AVN AS ACARS DATA SHOWED 100 
KTS OVER BAY AREA ABOUT 18Z WHICH WAS FORECAST BY AVN WHILE ETA WAS 
WEAKER. KBHX 88D SHOWING FIRST BAND OF THESE SHOWERS APPROACHING THE 
COAST NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WILL EXTEND WSW FOR INLAND AND 
TRINITY COUNTY ZONES. MOST INSTABILITY ALONG COAST SO WILL CONTINUE 
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE BUILDS 
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR DRY WEATHER RETURNING.  NEXT SYSTEM 
SHOULD APPROACH LATE SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS 
THOUGHT BUT INLINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH 
MONDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY 
WEATHER. MAY HAVE TO WATCH COLD AIR FILTERING INTO EASTERN TRINITY 
COUNTY DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AND THEN OVERRUNNING 
WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOW SNOW LEVELS.  
POPS CEC 8730 EKA 8730 UKI +730.

.EKA...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TRINITY COUNTY ABOVE 2000 FEET...
    ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES ABOVE 2500 
       FEET...
    ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MENDOCINO COUNTY ABOVE 2000 FEET...         
...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA OUT TO 60 NM...
    ...GALE WARNING PT ST GEORGE TO CAPE MENDOCINO OUT TO 60 NM... 
    ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE MENDOCINO TO PT ARENA OUT TO        
       60 NM... 
   
DEAN




EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN DIEGO CA

AFDSAN 930 AM PST FRI JAN 26 2001

                             ...SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A BAND 
OF RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY TONIGHT AS THE MAIN 
ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO BAJA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 
1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST WITH LOCALLY OVER AN INCH ON 
WEST-FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL LOCALLY BELOW 3000 FEET 
TONIGHT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY.

                            ...DISCUSSION...
IT IS A RATHER COLD MORNING...AND THE CORE OF THE LOW HAS NOT EVEN 
ARRIVED. A SPOTTER REPORTED SOME LIGHT SNOW AT 3200 FEET IN 
HESPERIA. BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS AND ACARS SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS 
OUR SNOW LEVEL RANGES FROM 3000-3500 FEET NORTH TO 4500 FEET SOUTH. 
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT MAY NOT BE 
SURPRISING TO SEE LOCAL SNOW AT 2000-2500 FEET IN A CONVECTIVE CELL 
TONIGHT...AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO. THE WATERSPOUT THREAT IS 
THERE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS GIVEN THAT WE WILL BE IN THE LEFT-FRONT 
QUADRANT OF A NEAR-150-KNOT JET DIVING SOUTH OFF THE COAST COMBINED 
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND LI VALUES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

ONCE THE RAIN BAND...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT...MOVES 
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP SHOULD BE TO 
OUR SOUTH OVER BAJA AS THEY WILL HAVE THE BEST DYNAMICS. UP 
HERE...WE WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...AND A LOT OF 
THAT SHOULD BE DOWNSTREAM FROM ISLANDS IN THE ISLAND CONVERGENCE 
BANDS. THUS...UP NORTH...PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT 
AND SATURDAY. WITH QPF VALUES OF GENERALLY .4-.8 IN. OVER THE 
MTNS...EXPECT BETWEEN ABOUT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH IS DOWN 
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

SAN 985

.SAN...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE LAXSPSSAN.
    ...SNOW ADVISORY...SEE LAXWSWSAN.

MAXWELL