AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
AFDATL 923 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2001
CHECK OF EVENING SOUNDINGS HAS ONE EYE CATCHING THING ON IT.
MODELS HAVE NOT CAUGHT STRENGTH OF SOUTHERN STREAM JET! 250MB WINDS
FROM DAYTIME MODEL RUNS SHOW WINDS FROM MS TO AL TO GA IN THE 110 TO
120 KTS RANGE WITH UKMET AT 120-130 KTS WHILE SOUNDINGS AND AIRCRAFT
REPORTS INDICATE WINDS ARE MORE LIKE 140-150 KTS. NO WONDER HI
CLOUDS ARE STREAKING NORTHEAST SO FAST. THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BUT AS MODELS STRENGTHEN JET MAX LATE WED INTO
THU...DO WONDER IF MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.
SATE TRENDS SHOW HI CLOUDS ENHANCING IN MS/AL WITH STRONG UPPER JET
MAX SO EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL GA.
THIS WILL HOLD MINS UP IN SOUTH SO WILL BUMP MINS UP THERE SLIGHTLY.
FARTHER NORTH...TEMPS ARE AT OR BLO GUIDANCE AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS...SFC DWPTS IN THE 30S...AND LESS HI CLOUDS...WILL CUT LOWS
NORTH AS RMG ALREADY IN THE 40S. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST LOOKS REAL
GOOD.
.ATL...
GA...NONE.
NOEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
AFDBTV 945 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2001
WILL UPDATE ZFP AGAIN TO TAKE DOWN WINTER WX ADVISORY...AS FREEZING
PCPN MOSTLY OVER ATTM...AND MAKE A FEW OTHER CHANGES TO THE GOING
ZFP.
STORM SYS TO CONT TO SLIDE EAST ACRS NRN VT EARLY TONITE...THEN
FURTHER EAST OVRNITE AS ANOTHER STORM SYS (AND ASSOCIATED S/W AND
UPR LOW) MOVES EAST ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION. YET ANOTHER STORM ALSO
GETTING TOGETHER TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG ATTM AS WELL. THE GREAT LKS
SYS WILL BE SLIDING THRU THE FA FROM THE WEST ON WED. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT (MOST LIKELY MEANING UPSLOPE INTO THE MTN ZONES) TO PERSIST
ACRS THE FA RIGHT THRU WED.
2230Z ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF KBTV SHOWED ATMOSPHERE ALOFT CONTINUING
TO COOL OFF. JUST A FEW ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING PCPN ACRS THE
FA ATTM. WILL LEAVE IN A FEW POCKETS OF -FZDZ EARLY IN THE OVRNITE
PERIOD. RUT CTY STILL THE WARM SPOT ACRS THE FA AND A VARIETY OF
WINTER WX STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONITE THERE.
21Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS GETTING DOWN INTO THE M20S-M30S NORTH TO SOUTH
ACRS THE FA. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 20S. FEW TWEAKS TO
OVRNITE MINS TO KEEP UP WITH CURRENT OBS TRENDS...BUT THESE RANGES
LOOK GOOD. SFC WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY BUT STAY RELATIVELY LT
OVRNITE. MID-LVL MOISTURE TO DRY OUT A TAD BY AROUND 06Z TONITE.
PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA OVRNITE TONITE
(LEAST ACRS SRN VT). LIL BIT OF H85 FGEN NOTED ACRS THE NRN TIER
ZONES BY AROUND 09Z...BUT NO BIGGIE. GOOD LOW-LVL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z ACRS THE ST LAW VLY PROLLY AIDED IN
THAT NECK OF THE WOODS GETTING SOME GOOD BURSTS OF SN THIS EVENING.
RUC INDICATING P-TYPE TO BE MOSTLY SN FOR THE REST OF THE OVRNITE
PERIOD. 950MB WET-BULB TEMPS GO NEGATIVE ACRS THE NRN TIER BY AROUND
06Z TONITE. RUC CRANKING OUT LESS THAN 0.20" THRU 09Z TONITE...SO
MAYBE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO BEFORE THE STEADY SN TAPERS OFF.
BASICALLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AT H85 RIGHT THRU WED.
PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO LINGER ACRS THE FA ON WED AS WELL.
MID-LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE AGAIN ACRS THE FA ON WED. H85 TEMPS WENT
NEGATIVE ACRS THE ENTIRE FA BY AROUND 00Z WED AND WILL STAY THAT WAY
RIGHT THRU WED. PW VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.5"
THRU WED. QPF APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 0.20" AFTER TONITE/S PCPN. 2"-
5" OF SN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE NEXT SYS THOUGH. AM A LIL
CONCERNED THAT THE MTN ZONES WILL GO ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL
IF YOU ADD UP WHAT THEY/VE GOTTEN SO FAR (BASICALLY 1-3") WITH WHAT/S
ON THE WAY FOR THE REST OF TONITE THRU WED. WILL OPT TO LET THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR FREEZING PCPN DROP TONITE AND LET THE MIDNITE
SHIFT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES FOR SNOWFALL ON WED. PCPN EXPECTED TO CONT
TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVRNITE...THEN REORGANIZE ON
WED AS NEXT SYS PULLS THRU. FOR NOW...WILL WORD ZONES WITH
"ADDITIONAL" ACCUMULATION WORDING FOR BOTH OVRNITE TONITE AND ON
WED.
RE-GROUPED CHAMP VLY ZONES TOGETHER FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE. WINDSOR
AND RUT CTYS WILL BE GROUPED IN THEIR OWN ZONES FOR P-TYPE
DIFFERENCES OVRNITE TONITE. ADDED ORANGE CTY IN WITH THE REST OF
NE/NC VT FOR MORE SN OVRNITE TONITE AND ON WED. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
A FEW ZONES THAT WEREN/T ALREADY TOO WORDY. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
TO GOING ZFP.
WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 10 PM.
.BTV...NONE.
MURRAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
AFDBTV 631 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2001
HAVE UPDATED ZFP EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE -SN ACRS THE FA.
21Z ACARS SOUNDING INTO KBTV SHOWS ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ALMOST TOTALLY
BLO 0 DEG C. SFC REPORTS ACRS MUCH OF THE FA (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE EXTREME SRN ST LAW VLY AND RUT CTY VT) SHOWING PCPN ATTM IS
MOSTLY SN AS WELL. FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR FZRA/PL ARE WANING RAPIDLY
ATTM AND HAVE REMOVED THESE POSSIBILITIES FROM THE GOING ZFP.
BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS PLENTY OF PCPN PIVOTING ACRS THE FA FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST ATTM...SO PCPN SHOULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING
HRS. HAVE BUMPED SN ACCUMULATIONS UP A BIT IN NRN LOCALES FOR THE
TONITE PERIOD. IR SAT PIX SHOW LOWER CLD TOPS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FA ARE AOA -10 DEG C...SO -FZDZ A POSSIBILITY AFTER THE PCPN
STARTS TO TAPER OFF A BIT. HAVE ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY TO THE GOING
ZFP AS WELL.
FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS AND WINDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. PUT
A BAG ON THE POPS FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE FA TONITE...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF RUT CTY VT. WILL LEAVE WINTER WX ADVISORY UP FOR A BIT
LONGER...THEN MOST LIKELY DROP IT WITH A LATER UPDATED ZFP BY 10 PM.
ZFPBTV ALREADY GONE. LATER...
.BTV...WINTER WX ADVISORY NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>012 THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
MURRAY